Change:

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET CHAMPIONSHIP

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Newcastle United 46 29 7 10 94   0 54.8% 24.8% 20.4% 94.0 
 2. Brighton and Hove Albion 46 28 9 9 93   0 49.9% 26.0% 24.1% 93.0 
 3. Reading 46 26 7 13 85   0 44.8% 26.8% 28.4% 85.0 
 4. Sheffield Wednesday 46 24 9 13 81   0 45.6% 26.7% 27.7% 81.0 
 5. Huddersfield Town 46 25 6 15 81   0 36.2% 27.3% 36.4% 81.0 
 6. Fulham 46 22 14 10 80   0 48.7% 26.1% 25.2% 80.0 
 7. Leeds United 45 21 9 15 72   1 41.8% 27.1% 31.1% 73.7 
 8. Norwich City 46 20 10 16 70   0 45.1% 26.8% 28.2% 70.0 
 9. Derby County 46 18 13 15 67   0 40.4% 27.2% 32.4% 67.0 
 10. Brentford 46 18 10 18 64   0 40.5% 27.2% 32.4% 64.0 
 11. Cardiff City 46 17 11 18 62   0 38.0% 27.3% 34.7% 62.0 
 12. Aston Villa 46 16 14 16 62   0 35.7% 27.3% 36.9% 62.0 
 13. Preston North End 46 16 14 16 62   0 35.5% 27.3% 37.3% 62.0 
 14. Barnsley 46 15 13 18 58   0 30.7% 27.0% 42.3% 58.0 
 15. Wolverhampton Wanderers 46 16 10 20 58   0 35.6% 27.3% 37.1% 58.0 
 16. Ipswich Town 46 13 16 17 55   0 30.7% 27.1% 42.2% 55.0 
 17. Birmingham City 45 13 14 18 53   1 27.3% 26.7% 46.0% 54.1 
 18. Bristol City 46 15 9 22 54   0 32.7% 27.1% 40.2% 54.0 
 19. Queens Park Rangers 46 15 8 23 53   0 30.1% 26.9% 43.0% 53.0 
 20. Burton Albion 46 13 13 20 52   0 28.4% 26.7% 44.9% 52.0 
 21. Blackburn Rovers 46 12 15 19 51   0 34.6% 27.2% 38.2% 51.0 
 22. Nottingham Forest 46 14 9 23 51   0 30.9% 27.2% 42.0% 51.0 
 23. Wigan Athletic 46 10 12 24 42   0 25.7% 26.2% 48.1% 42.0 
 24. Rotherham United 46 5 8 33 23   0 16.6% 22.7% 60.7% 23.0 

Change division:
Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two | National League | National League North | National League South