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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET CHAMPIONSHIP

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Leicester City 43 29 4 10 91   3 55.8% 23.7% 20.5% 96.7 
 2. Ipswich Town 43 26 11 6 89   3 51.6% 24.7% 23.7% 94.3 
 3. Leeds United 43 26 9 8 87   3 56.3% 23.5% 20.1% 92.4 
 4. Southampton 43 25 9 9 84   3 51.1% 24.9% 24.0% 88.2 
 5. Norwich City 44 21 9 14 72   2 44.3% 26.1% 29.6% 75.5 
 6. West Bromwich Albion 44 20 12 12 72   2 44.3% 26.0% 29.7% 75.4 
 7. Hull City 43 18 12 13 66   3 38.0% 26.4% 35.6% 69.7 
 8. Coventry City 42 17 12 13 63   4 43.6% 26.0% 30.4% 69.4 
 9. Middlesbrough 43 18 9 16 63   3 43.4% 26.0% 30.5% 67.5 
 10. Preston North End 44 18 9 17 63   2 34.4% 26.4% 39.2% 64.8 
 11. Cardiff City 44 19 5 20 62   2 30.0% 26.0% 44.0% 64.8 
 12. Bristol City 44 16 11 17 59   2 38.4% 26.4% 35.2% 62.6 
 13. Sunderland 44 16 8 20 56   2 33.6% 26.4% 40.1% 58.8 
 14. Swansea City 44 15 11 18 56   2 37.2% 26.6% 36.2% 58.7 
 15. Millwall 44 14 11 19 53   2 32.1% 26.3% 41.6% 55.7 
 16. Watford 44 12 17 15 53   2 33.8% 26.3% 40.0% 55.5 
 17. Blackburn Rovers 43 13 10 20 49   3 32.6% 26.4% 41.0% 52.3 
 18. Stoke City 44 13 11 20 50   2 31.1% 26.1% 42.9% 52.0 
 19. Queens Park Rangers 44 13 11 20 50   2 28.3% 25.8% 45.9% 51.6 
 20. Plymouth Argyle 44 12 12 20 48   2 29.9% 26.0% 44.2% 50.4 
 21. Birmingham City 44 12 10 22 46   2 26.4% 25.5% 48.1% 48.2 
 22. Sheffield Wednesday 43 12 8 23 44   3 31.1% 26.1% 42.8% 47.4 
 23. Huddersfield Town 44 9 17 18 44   2 26.9% 25.6% 47.6% 46.2 
 24. Rotherham United 44 4 12 28 24   2 18.0% 22.6% 59.5% 25.7 

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