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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET CHAMPIONSHIP

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Brighton and Hove Albion 44 28 8 8 92   2 52.2% 25.4% 22.4% 95.7 
 2. Newcastle United 45 28 7 10 91   1 51.8% 25.6% 22.6% 93.0 
 3. Huddersfield Town 44 25 6 13 81   2 38.9% 27.2% 33.9% 84.3 
 4. Reading 44 24 7 13 79   2 41.3% 27.2% 31.5% 82.6 
 5. Sheffield Wednesday 44 23 9 12 78   2 46.6% 26.4% 27.0% 81.1 
 6. Fulham 44 21 13 10 76   2 49.0% 26.1% 24.9% 79.0 
 7. Leeds United 43 21 7 15 70   3 42.4% 27.0% 30.6% 75.0 
 8. Norwich City 44 19 9 16 66   2 43.7% 26.8% 29.5% 69.2 
 9. Derby County 44 17 12 15 63   2 39.5% 27.1% 33.4% 66.7 
 10. Brentford 44 18 9 17 63   2 42.5% 27.1% 30.4% 65.8 
 11. Preston North End 44 16 13 15 61   2 38.5% 27.2% 34.3% 64.5 
 12. Aston Villa 44 16 13 15 61   2 35.9% 27.2% 36.9% 63.4 
 13. Cardiff City 45 16 11 18 59   1 36.8% 27.2% 36.0% 60.2 
 14. Barnsley 44 15 12 17 57   2 31.7% 27.1% 41.2% 59.3 
 15. Wolverhampton Wanderers 44 15 10 19 55   2 37.0% 27.2% 35.8% 57.6 
 16. Ipswich Town 44 13 16 15 55   2 33.6% 27.1% 39.3% 57.4 
 17. Bristol City 44 14 9 21 51   2 32.3% 27.2% 40.5% 53.5 
 18. Burton Albion 44 13 12 19 51   2 29.5% 26.9% 43.6% 53.3 
 19. Queens Park Rangers 44 14 8 22 50   2 29.7% 26.9% 43.4% 52.3 
 20. Nottingham Forest 44 13 9 22 48   2 30.4% 26.9% 42.7% 50.6 
 21. Birmingham City 43 11 14 18 47   3 24.9% 26.1% 49.0% 50.0 
 22. Blackburn Rovers 44 10 15 19 45   2 31.1% 27.0% 41.9% 47.3 
 23. Wigan Athletic 44 10 11 23 41   2 25.7% 26.2% 48.1% 42.8 
 24. Rotherham United 44 5 6 33 21   2 15.6% 22.2% 62.1% 22.3 

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