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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET CHAMPIONSHIP

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Wolverhampton Wanderers 45 30 9 6 99   1 55.1% 24.4% 20.5% 101.1 
 2. Cardiff City 45 27 8 10 89   1 49.7% 25.9% 24.4% 91.1 
 3. Fulham 45 25 13 7 88   1 58.2% 23.6% 18.2% 90.2 
 4. Aston Villa 45 24 11 10 83   1 47.9% 26.1% 26.0% 84.4 
 5. Middlesbrough 45 22 9 14 75   1 47.8% 26.2% 26.1% 76.7 
 6. Derby County 45 19 15 11 72   1 41.3% 27.0% 31.7% 74.0 
 7. Preston North End 44 18 15 11 69   2 40.9% 27.1% 32.1% 73.0 
 8. Millwall 45 18 15 12 69   1 41.4% 27.0% 31.6% 70.3 
 9. Brentford 45 18 14 13 68   1 41.4% 27.0% 31.6% 69.7 
 10. Bristol City 45 17 16 12 67   1 38.6% 27.1% 34.3% 68.6 
 11. Sheffield United 44 18 9 17 63   2 37.2% 27.0% 35.8% 65.8 
 12. Norwich City 45 15 15 15 60   1 38.1% 26.9% 35.0% 61.3 
 13. Ipswich Town 45 17 8 20 59   1 31.7% 27.0% 41.3% 60.0 
 14. Leeds United 45 16 9 20 57   1 30.8% 27.0% 42.2% 58.5 
 15. Queens Park Rangers 45 15 11 19 56   1 32.0% 26.9% 41.1% 57.3 
 16. Sheffield Wednesday 45 13 15 17 54   1 36.8% 27.0% 36.2% 55.5 
 17. Nottingham Forest 45 15 8 22 53   1 30.4% 27.0% 42.6% 54.5 
 18. Hull City 45 11 15 19 48   1 36.0% 27.0% 37.1% 49.1 
 19. Reading 45 10 13 22 43   1 26.0% 26.0% 48.0% 43.7 
 20. Birmingham City 45 12 7 26 43   1 24.9% 25.9% 49.2% 43.6 
 21. Burton Albion 44 10 11 23 41   2 24.7% 25.8% 49.6% 42.8 
 22. Barnsley 45 9 14 22 41   1 25.4% 25.9% 48.7% 41.8 
 23. Bolton Wanderers 44 9 12 23 39   2 23.3% 25.6% 51.1% 41.0 
 24. Sunderland 45 6 16 23 34   1 24.4% 25.9% 49.7% 34.7 

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