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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET CHAMPIONSHIP

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Newcastle United 38 24 6 8 78   8 55.0% 24.8% 20.1% 93.5 
 2. Brighton and Hove Albion 38 23 8 7 77   8 50.5% 25.9% 23.6% 91.7 
 3. Huddersfield Town 37 22 5 10 71   9 41.8% 27.0% 31.2% 84.9 
 4. Leeds United 37 20 6 11 66   9 46.3% 26.6% 27.1% 80.4 
 5. Reading 38 20 7 11 67   8 40.6% 27.2% 32.2% 80.0 
 6. Sheffield Wednesday 38 18 8 12 62   8 41.9% 27.0% 31.1% 74.3 
 7. Fulham 38 16 13 9 61   8 44.0% 26.9% 29.1% 73.6 
 8. Preston North End 38 15 12 11 57   8 42.6% 27.0% 30.3% 69.2 
 9. Norwich City 38 16 9 13 57   8 42.6% 27.0% 30.3% 67.9 
 10. Derby County 38 14 11 13 53   8 39.2% 27.2% 33.7% 65.0 
 11. Aston Villa 38 13 12 13 51   8 36.4% 27.3% 36.2% 61.9 
 12. Cardiff City 38 14 9 15 51   8 37.3% 27.2% 35.5% 61.7 
 13. Brentford 38 14 8 16 50   8 37.2% 27.2% 35.5% 61.2 
 14. Barnsley 38 14 9 15 51   8 31.9% 27.1% 41.1% 61.0 
 15. Queens Park Rangers 38 14 8 16 50   8 35.3% 27.4% 37.3% 59.9 
 16. Wolverhampton Wanderers 37 12 9 16 45   9 36.7% 27.3% 36.0% 57.0 
 17. Ipswich Town 38 10 15 13 45   8 31.8% 27.1% 41.1% 55.9 
 18. Birmingham City 37 11 12 14 45   9 28.0% 26.7% 45.3% 55.3 
 19. Bristol City 38 11 8 19 41   8 30.7% 27.0% 42.3% 50.5 
 20. Nottingham Forest 38 11 8 19 41   8 29.4% 26.9% 43.7% 50.0 
 21. Blackburn Rovers 38 9 13 16 40   8 33.2% 27.2% 39.6% 49.9 
 22. Burton Albion 38 10 11 17 41   8 26.1% 26.4% 47.6% 48.9 
 23. Wigan Athletic 38 8 10 20 34   8 25.7% 26.3% 48.0% 42.3 
 24. Rotherham United 38 4 5 29 17   8 15.6% 22.5% 61.9% 22.8 

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