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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET CHAMPIONSHIP

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Norwich City 27 14 8 5 50   19 45.5% 26.3% 28.1% 81.8 
 2. Sheffield United 27 15 5 7 50   19 47.0% 26.1% 26.8% 81.5 
 3. Leeds United 27 15 7 5 52   19 42.3% 26.6% 31.1% 81.5 
 4. West Bromwich Albion 27 13 8 6 47   19 48.8% 25.9% 25.2% 79.8 
 5. Middlesbrough 27 12 10 5 46   19 46.3% 26.2% 27.4% 77.2 
 6. Derby County 27 12 8 7 44   19 45.2% 26.3% 28.4% 75.9 
 7. Bristol City 27 11 8 8 41   19 39.9% 26.8% 33.3% 67.9 
 8. Aston Villa 27 9 11 7 38   19 42.3% 26.6% 31.1% 67.3 
 9. Hull City 27 11 6 10 39   19 40.2% 26.7% 33.1% 66.3 
 10. Swansea City 27 10 7 10 37   19 42.7% 26.7% 30.6% 66.2 
 11. Birmingham City 27 9 12 6 39   19 36.3% 27.1% 36.7% 64.8 
 12. Nottingham Forest 27 9 12 6 39   19 36.3% 27.0% 36.8% 64.8 
 13. Queens Park Rangers 27 11 6 10 39   19 35.7% 26.9% 37.4% 64.3 
 14. Blackburn Rovers 27 9 10 8 37   19 37.1% 26.9% 36.0% 64.0 
 15. Stoke City 27 8 11 8 35   19 39.2% 26.8% 34.0% 62.1 
 16. Brentford 27 7 10 10 31   19 36.8% 26.9% 36.3% 57.5 
 17. Sheffield Wednesday 27 8 8 11 32   19 32.4% 26.7% 40.9% 56.4 
 18. Preston North End 27 7 9 11 30   19 35.5% 26.8% 37.7% 55.2 
 19. Wigan Athletic 27 8 5 14 29   19 30.2% 26.6% 43.2% 52.1 
 20. Millwall 27 7 7 13 28   19 31.0% 26.7% 42.3% 49.8 
 21. Rotherham United 27 5 10 12 25   19 24.5% 25.6% 50.0% 42.9 
 22. Reading 27 5 8 14 23   19 25.2% 25.9% 49.0% 42.2 
 23. Bolton Wanderers 27 5 7 15 22   19 20.7% 24.5% 54.8% 38.6 
 24. Ipswich Town 27 3 9 15 18   19 22.0% 24.9% 53.1% 34.9 

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