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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET CHAMPIONSHIP

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Wolverhampton Wanderers 16 11 2 3 35   30 47.2% 26.5% 26.3% 85.9 
 2. Sheffield United 16 11 0 5 33   30 44.1% 26.9% 28.9% 81.4 
 3. Cardiff City 16 9 4 3 31   30 42.5% 27.2% 30.2% 77.5 
 4. Bristol City 16 8 6 2 30   30 43.8% 27.0% 29.1% 77.2 
 5. Middlesbrough 16 7 5 4 26   30 46.3% 26.7% 27.0% 75.8 
 6. Derby County 15 7 4 4 25   31 40.8% 27.4% 31.8% 72.0 
 7. Aston Villa 16 7 5 4 26   30 40.6% 27.4% 32.1% 70.9 
 8. Brentford 16 5 7 4 22   30 41.4% 27.3% 31.3% 67.7 
 9. Sheffield Wednesday 16 6 5 5 23   30 41.5% 27.3% 31.2% 67.6 
 10. Leeds United 16 7 2 7 23   30 38.7% 27.4% 33.9% 65.6 
 11. Norwich City 16 6 4 6 22   30 39.2% 27.5% 33.3% 65.3 
 12. Fulham 16 4 7 5 19   30 41.4% 27.3% 31.2% 64.8 
 13. Reading 15 5 3 7 18   31 39.9% 27.4% 32.6% 64.2 
 14. Nottingham Forest 16 8 0 8 24   30 32.6% 27.5% 39.9% 62.3 
 15. Ipswich Town 15 8 0 7 24   31 32.9% 27.4% 39.7% 61.9 
 16. Preston North End 16 5 6 5 21   30 33.7% 27.4% 38.9% 60.1 
 17. Hull City 16 4 4 8 16   30 36.7% 27.4% 35.9% 56.9 
 18. Barnsley 15 5 4 6 19   31 32.2% 27.5% 40.3% 56.7 
 19. Queens Park Rangers 16 5 6 5 21   30 30.3% 27.2% 42.5% 56.4 
 20. Millwall 16 4 5 7 17   30 27.6% 26.8% 45.6% 49.1 
 21. Sunderland 16 1 7 8 10   30 31.5% 27.4% 41.1% 47.1 
 22. Burton Albion 16 3 4 9 13   30 23.4% 26.1% 50.5% 42.0 
 23. Bolton Wanderers 16 2 5 9 11   30 24.9% 26.5% 48.6% 41.6 
 24. Birmingham City 16 3 3 10 12   30 21.6% 25.4% 53.0% 38.9 

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