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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET CHAMPIONSHIP

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Wolverhampton Wanderers 26 18 5 3 59   20 53.9% 25.1% 20.9% 96.2 
 2. Derby County 26 15 6 5 51   20 49.0% 26.3% 24.7% 85.0 
 3. Bristol City 26 13 7 6 46   20 43.1% 27.1% 29.8% 77.8 
 4. Cardiff City 26 14 5 7 47   20 41.8% 27.2% 31.0% 77.1 
 5. Aston Villa 26 12 8 6 44   20 44.0% 27.0% 29.1% 76.3 
 6. Fulham 26 11 8 7 41   20 45.8% 26.8% 27.5% 74.1 
 7. Middlesbrough 27 12 5 10 41   19 43.2% 27.1% 29.7% 71.0 
 8. Brentford 26 10 10 6 40   20 41.7% 27.2% 31.1% 70.5 
 9. Leeds United 27 13 4 10 43   19 39.9% 27.4% 32.7% 69.9 
 10. Sheffield United 26 12 4 10 40   20 39.3% 27.2% 33.5% 68.9 
 11. Preston North End 26 10 10 6 40   20 38.2% 27.4% 34.4% 68.9 
 12. Norwich City 26 10 6 10 36   20 40.0% 27.3% 32.7% 65.4 
 13. Ipswich Town 26 12 2 12 38   20 33.4% 27.4% 39.2% 63.7 
 14. Queens Park Rangers 26 8 9 9 33   20 29.7% 27.0% 43.3% 55.9 
 15. Sheffield Wednesday 26 7 9 10 30   20 34.6% 27.4% 38.0% 55.9 
 16. Nottingham Forest 26 10 2 14 32   20 28.7% 26.9% 44.3% 54.9 
 17. Millwall 26 7 9 10 30   20 31.7% 27.3% 41.1% 54.7 
 18. Reading 26 7 8 11 29   20 33.5% 27.4% 39.1% 53.9 
 19. Hull City 26 5 9 12 24   20 34.9% 27.4% 37.7% 50.8 
 20. Barnsley 26 6 8 12 26   20 27.5% 26.7% 45.8% 47.7 
 21. Bolton Wanderers 26 6 6 14 24   20 27.1% 26.7% 46.2% 45.8 
 22. Sunderland 26 4 9 13 21   20 28.7% 26.9% 44.3% 43.7 
 23. Burton Albion 26 6 6 14 24   20 23.6% 26.1% 50.2% 43.3 
 24. Birmingham City 26 5 5 16 20   20 23.5% 26.0% 50.5% 40.1 

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