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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

PREMIER LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Chelsea 38 30 3 5 93   0 61.4% 21.8% 16.8% 93.0 
 2. Tottenham Hotspur 38 26 8 4 86   0 59.6% 22.5% 17.9% 86.0 
 3. Manchester City 38 23 9 6 78   0 55.1% 23.5% 21.4% 78.0 
 4. Liverpool 38 22 10 6 76   0 50.5% 24.6% 25.0% 76.0 
 5. Arsenal 38 23 6 9 75   0 55.4% 23.6% 21.1% 75.0 
 6. Manchester United 38 18 15 5 69   0 52.8% 24.1% 23.1% 69.0 
 7. Everton 38 17 10 11 61   0 42.6% 25.8% 31.6% 61.0 
 8. AFC Bournemouth 38 12 10 16 46   0 30.0% 25.8% 44.3% 46.0 
 9. Southampton 38 12 10 16 46   0 37.5% 26.3% 36.3% 46.0 
 10. West Bromwich Albion 38 12 9 17 45   0 28.2% 25.5% 46.3% 45.0 
 11. West Ham United 38 12 9 17 45   0 33.2% 25.9% 40.9% 45.0 
 12. Stoke City 38 11 11 16 44   0 30.9% 25.8% 43.3% 44.0 
 13. Leicester City 38 12 8 18 44   0 36.8% 26.4% 36.8% 44.0 
 14. Crystal Palace 38 12 5 21 41   0 30.2% 25.7% 44.1% 41.0 
 15. Swansea City 38 12 5 21 41   0 29.7% 25.7% 44.7% 41.0 
 16. Watford 38 11 7 20 40   0 24.8% 25.0% 50.2% 40.0 
 17. Burnley 38 11 7 20 40   0 28.1% 25.4% 46.6% 40.0 
 18. Hull City 38 9 7 22 34   0 23.5% 24.6% 51.9% 34.0 
 19. Middlesbrough 38 5 13 20 28   0 21.9% 24.2% 53.9% 28.0 
 20. Sunderland 38 6 6 26 24   0 20.1% 23.7% 56.1% 24.0 

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