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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

PREMIER LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Chelsea 33 25 3 5 78   5 60.1% 22.3% 17.7% 88.9 
 2. Tottenham Hotspur 33 22 8 3 74   5 58.3% 22.9% 18.7% 83.5 
 3. Manchester City 33 19 8 6 65   5 54.7% 23.9% 21.4% 75.5 
 4. Liverpool 34 19 9 6 66   4 49.8% 25.1% 25.1% 73.8 
 5. Manchester United 33 17 13 3 64   5 54.9% 23.8% 21.2% 72.7 
 6. Arsenal 32 18 6 8 60   6 48.0% 25.4% 26.6% 69.3 
 7. Everton 34 16 10 8 58   4 45.4% 25.9% 28.7% 64.0 
 8. West Bromwich Albion 33 12 8 13 44   5 30.7% 26.1% 43.2% 49.3 
 9. Southampton 32 11 7 14 40   6 39.9% 26.3% 33.8% 48.8 
 10. Watford 33 11 7 15 40   5 27.4% 25.5% 47.1% 43.7 
 11. Leicester City 33 10 7 16 37   5 37.1% 26.5% 36.5% 43.7 
 12. Stoke City 34 10 9 15 39   4 30.2% 26.0% 43.8% 43.6 
 13. AFC Bournemouth 34 10 8 16 38   4 27.6% 25.6% 46.8% 43.3 
 14. Crystal Palace 34 11 5 18 38   4 30.5% 26.1% 43.5% 42.5 
 15. West Ham United 34 10 8 16 38   4 31.7% 26.3% 42.1% 42.3 
 16. Burnley 34 10 6 18 36   4 28.5% 25.8% 45.7% 41.2 
 17. Hull City 34 9 6 19 33   4 26.4% 25.4% 48.2% 37.3 
 18. Swansea City 34 9 4 21 31   4 25.2% 25.0% 49.8% 35.1 
 19. Middlesbrough 34 5 12 17 27   4 21.3% 24.3% 54.5% 29.5 
 20. Sunderland 33 5 6 22 21   5 21.2% 24.2% 54.6% 25.6 

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