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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

PREMIER LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Liverpool 29 27 1 1 82   9 67.2% 19.2% 13.7% 101.1 
 2. Manchester City 27 18 3 6 57   11 65.0% 20.1% 14.9% 80.6 
 3. Leicester City 28 15 5 8 50   10 42.4% 25.7% 31.9% 66.0 
 4. Manchester United 27 11 9 7 42   11 47.5% 25.2% 27.3% 60.6 
 5. Chelsea 28 13 6 9 45   10 44.5% 25.6% 29.8% 60.5 
 6. Wolverhampton Wanderers 29 10 13 6 43   9 40.6% 26.0% 33.4% 57.0 
 7. Sheffield United 28 11 10 7 43   10 36.1% 26.1% 37.9% 56.0 
 8. Tottenham Hotspur 29 11 8 10 41   9 44.2% 25.6% 30.2% 55.7 
 9. Arsenal 27 8 13 6 37   11 43.5% 25.6% 30.9% 53.2 
 10. Everton 28 10 7 11 37   10 38.2% 26.0% 35.8% 50.9 
 11. Burnley 29 11 6 12 39   9 32.4% 26.0% 41.7% 50.2 
 12. Crystal Palace 29 10 9 10 39   9 33.8% 26.0% 40.2% 49.4 
 13. Newcastle United 29 9 8 12 35   9 30.1% 25.8% 44.1% 45.7 
 14. Southampton 29 10 4 15 34   9 29.8% 25.7% 44.5% 44.5 
 15. Watford 29 6 9 14 27   9 29.6% 25.6% 44.8% 37.4 
 16. West Ham United 29 7 6 16 27   9 27.5% 25.5% 47.1% 37.3 
 17. Brighton and Hove Albion 29 6 11 12 29   9 24.6% 24.8% 50.7% 37.2 
 18. Aston Villa 27 7 4 16 25   11 27.6% 25.5% 46.9% 36.0 
 19. AFC Bournemouth 29 7 6 16 27   9 23.1% 24.5% 52.3% 34.9 
 20. Norwich City 29 5 6 18 21   9 22.9% 24.6% 52.5% 29.9 

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