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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. AFC Fylde 41 25 10 6 85   1 53.9% 24.8% 21.3% 87.2 
 2. Kidderminster Harriers 41 24 7 10 79   1 50.9% 25.3% 23.8% 81.1 
 3. FC Halifax Town 41 23 8 10 77   1 54.4% 24.6% 21.1% 78.5 
 4. Stockport County 41 20 15 6 75   1 47.7% 25.9% 26.4% 76.8 
 5. Darlington 1883 40 21 10 9 73   2 45.3% 26.5% 28.2% 76.4 
 6. Chorley 41 20 14 7 74   1 46.5% 26.1% 27.4% 75.2 
 7. Salford City 41 20 11 10 71   1 44.4% 26.4% 29.2% 72.5 
 8. Brackley Town 41 19 13 9 70   1 44.2% 26.4% 29.4% 72.1 
 9. Tamworth 41 20 6 15 66   1 40.7% 26.7% 32.6% 68.1 
 10. Gloucester City 41 18 9 14 63   1 38.6% 26.9% 34.5% 64.0 
 11. Harrogate Town 40 15 10 15 55   2 36.6% 27.1% 36.3% 58.3 
 12. Nuneaton Town 41 14 12 15 54   1 40.6% 26.7% 32.7% 55.8 
 13. FC United of Manchester 41 13 12 16 51   1 34.4% 27.1% 38.6% 52.9 
 14. Curzon Ashton 41 13 10 18 49   1 32.6% 26.7% 40.7% 50.4 
 15. Boston United 41 12 11 18 47   1 34.1% 27.0% 39.0% 48.3 
 16. AFC Telford United 41 10 11 20 41   1 26.8% 26.1% 47.1% 42.1 
 17. Alfreton Town 41 11 8 22 41   1 24.4% 25.5% 50.1% 42.0 
 18. Bradford Park Avenue 41 11 7 23 40   1 26.4% 26.1% 47.5% 40.7 
 19. Worcester City 41 8 14 19 38   1 25.3% 25.7% 49.0% 38.6 
 20. Gainsborough Trinity 41 8 12 21 36   1 24.3% 25.3% 50.4% 36.9 
 21. Stalybridge Celtic 40 8 5 27 29   2 21.4% 24.7% 53.9% 30.6 
 22. Altrincham 40 4 9 27 21   2 20.6% 24.4% 55.0% 22.3 

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