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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. AFC Fylde 36 22 9 5 75   6 52.5% 25.2% 22.3% 86.5 
 2. Kidderminster Harriers 35 21 6 8 69   7 52.2% 25.3% 22.5% 82.8 
 3. Stockport County 36 18 12 6 66   6 47.4% 26.1% 26.6% 77.3 
 4. FC Halifax Town 35 19 7 9 64   7 51.8% 25.2% 23.0% 75.2 
 5. Chorley 36 17 12 7 63   6 44.5% 26.5% 29.1% 73.1 
 6. Salford City 36 17 10 9 61   6 44.1% 26.6% 29.3% 71.4 
 7. Darlington 1883 34 16 10 8 58   8 41.9% 26.9% 31.2% 71.2 
 8. Brackley Town 35 16 10 9 58   7 41.7% 26.8% 31.4% 69.7 
 9. Tamworth 36 17 5 14 56   6 38.3% 26.9% 34.8% 65.8 
 10. Gloucester City 35 17 5 13 56   7 38.5% 26.9% 34.5% 65.2 
 11. Harrogate Town 35 15 9 11 54   7 41.5% 26.8% 31.7% 64.3 
 12. Curzon Ashton 35 13 8 14 47   7 37.8% 27.0% 35.3% 57.2 
 13. Nuneaton Town 35 12 9 14 45   7 40.7% 26.8% 32.5% 55.4 
 14. FC United of Manchester 35 11 10 14 43   7 33.0% 27.2% 39.9% 52.6 
 15. Alfreton Town 35 11 7 17 40   7 30.3% 26.7% 43.0% 49.1 
 16. Boston United 36 11 9 16 42   6 34.3% 27.0% 38.7% 49.0 
 17. AFC Telford United 35 8 10 17 34   7 26.9% 26.1% 46.9% 41.6 
 18. Worcester City 36 8 12 16 36   6 26.4% 26.1% 47.5% 41.5 
 19. Bradford Park Avenue 35 10 4 21 34   7 25.4% 26.1% 48.6% 40.1 
 20. Gainsborough Trinity 36 7 10 19 31   6 22.7% 25.3% 51.9% 35.6 
 21. Stalybridge Celtic 32 5 4 23 19   10 19.4% 23.9% 56.7% 26.7 
 22. Altrincham 35 3 8 24 17   7 20.8% 24.6% 54.6% 22.4 

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