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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Tamworth 45 29 8 8 95   1 53.0% 24.3% 22.8% 97.2 
 2. Scunthorpe United 46 25 10 11 85   1 50.2% 25.0% 24.8% 87.0 
 3. Chorley 46 25 8 13 83   1 46.3% 25.6% 28.1% 84.6 
 4. Brackley Town 45 24 10 11 82   1 51.1% 24.8% 24.1% 83.9 
 5. Alfreton Town 45 22 11 12 77   1 48.4% 25.4% 26.2% 78.7 
 6. Curzon Ashton 45 21 11 13 74   1 43.0% 26.0% 31.0% 76.2 
 7. Boston United 45 20 12 13 72   1 45.1% 25.8% 29.1% 73.5 
 8. South Shields 45 21 8 16 71   1 40.0% 26.3% 33.7% 72.8 
 9. Spennymoor Town 46 21 8 17 71   1 43.1% 26.0% 30.9% 72.6 
 10. Hereford 45 20 9 16 69   1 37.6% 26.3% 36.2% 70.3 
 11. Chester 45 18 14 13 68   1 46.0% 25.6% 28.4% 69.7 
 12. Buxton 46 18 11 17 65   1 40.4% 26.3% 33.4% 66.7 
 13. Scarborough Athletic 45 18 10 17 64   1 35.0% 26.3% 38.7% 65.1 
 14. Warrington Town 45 17 11 17 62   1 33.9% 26.4% 39.7% 63.4 
 15. Peterborough Sports 45 16 10 19 58   1 32.3% 26.2% 41.5% 59.1 
 16. Southport 45 16 8 21 56   1 31.4% 26.1% 42.5% 57.0 
 17. King's Lynn Town 45 13 16 16 55   1 39.6% 26.3% 34.1% 56.1 
 18. Darlington 45 16 7 22 55   1 36.8% 26.3% 36.9% 56.0 
 19. Rushall Olympic 45 15 8 22 53   1 29.3% 25.8% 44.9% 54.3 
 20. Farsley Celtic 45 12 14 19 50   1 26.2% 25.2% 48.7% 51.0 
 21. Blyth Spartans 45 13 11 21 50   1 28.2% 25.5% 46.3% 50.8 
 22. Banbury United 45 10 8 27 38   1 19.1% 22.8% 58.1% 38.6 
 23. Gloucester City 45 9 9 27 36   1 24.1% 24.7% 51.2% 36.7 
 24. Bishop's Stortford 45 6 2 37 20   1 15.4% 20.6% 64.0% 20.6 

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