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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Salford City 25 16 5 4 53   17 52.1% 25.5% 22.4% 84.6 
 2. Brackley Town 24 13 9 2 48   18 50.0% 25.7% 24.3% 79.2 
 3. Harrogate Town 24 14 5 5 47   18 47.1% 26.2% 26.7% 76.9 
 4. Spennymoor Town 23 13 5 5 44   19 42.0% 26.9% 31.1% 73.9 
 5. Kidderminster Harriers 24 10 9 5 39   18 49.0% 25.9% 25.1% 69.8 
 6. York City 24 12 4 8 40   18 47.5% 26.1% 26.4% 69.5 
 7. Blyth Spartans 23 13 0 10 39   19 40.5% 27.1% 32.4% 67.3 
 8. Chorley 24 10 7 7 37   18 44.6% 26.6% 28.8% 66.6 
 9. Stockport County 24 10 6 8 36   18 44.8% 26.6% 28.6% 64.9 
 10. Bradford Park Avenue 25 10 6 9 36   17 36.6% 27.0% 36.4% 59.0 
 11. FC United of Manchester 24 9 5 10 32   18 35.7% 27.1% 37.2% 57.2 
 12. Tamworth 24 9 5 10 32   18 34.5% 27.0% 38.5% 55.4 
 13. Boston United 24 9 5 10 32   18 33.9% 27.1% 39.0% 53.7 
 14. Nuneaton Town 25 8 4 13 28   17 33.5% 27.0% 39.5% 50.3 
 15. Curzon Ashton 24 7 8 9 29   18 31.0% 26.9% 42.1% 50.0 
 16. AFC Telford United 22 8 3 11 27   20 27.0% 26.3% 46.6% 50.0 
 17. Southport 25 7 8 10 29   17 31.4% 26.9% 41.7% 49.7 
 18. Leamington 24 6 7 11 25   18 32.7% 27.0% 40.3% 48.1 
 19. Darlington 1883 25 6 8 11 26   17 32.1% 27.0% 40.9% 47.3 
 20. Alfreton Town 24 7 3 14 24   18 25.2% 26.1% 48.8% 41.6 
 21. Gainsborough Trinity 23 6 4 13 22   19 22.0% 24.9% 53.1% 39.0 
 22. North Ferriby United 24 1 4 19 7   18 16.8% 22.7% 60.5% 19.7 

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