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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Salford City 42 27 8 7 89   0 55.1% 24.6% 20.3% 89.0 
 2. Harrogate Town 42 26 7 9 85   0 51.3% 25.6% 23.1% 85.0 
 3. Brackley Town 42 23 11 8 80   0 50.0% 25.8% 24.2% 80.0 
 4. Kidderminster Harriers 42 20 12 10 72   0 47.6% 26.2% 26.2% 72.0 
 5. Stockport County 42 20 9 13 69   0 45.1% 26.4% 28.5% 69.0 
 6. Chorley 42 18 14 10 68   0 47.4% 26.2% 26.4% 68.0 
 7. Bradford Park Avenue 42 18 9 15 63   0 40.9% 27.0% 32.1% 63.0 
 8. Spennymoor Town 42 18 9 15 63   0 34.1% 27.0% 38.9% 63.0 
 9. Boston United 42 17 9 16 60   0 40.4% 27.0% 32.6% 60.0 
 10. Blyth Spartans 42 19 2 21 59   0 34.5% 26.9% 38.5% 59.0 
 11. York City 42 16 10 16 58   0 37.5% 27.0% 35.5% 58.0 
 12. Nuneaton Town 42 14 13 15 55   0 37.4% 27.0% 35.6% 55.0 
 13. Darlington 1883 42 14 13 15 55   0 37.5% 27.0% 35.5% 55.0 
 14. AFC Telford United 42 16 5 21 53   0 28.9% 26.7% 44.4% 53.0 
 15. FC United of Manchester 42 14 8 20 50   0 31.3% 26.9% 41.8% 50.0 
 16. Southport 42 14 8 20 50   0 32.2% 27.1% 40.7% 50.0 
 17. Leamington 42 13 10 19 49   0 30.9% 26.9% 42.2% 49.0 
 18. Alfreton Town 42 14 7 21 49   0 30.0% 26.8% 43.2% 49.0 
 19. Curzon Ashton 42 12 13 17 49   0 31.0% 26.9% 42.1% 49.0 
 20. Gainsborough Trinity 42 14 4 24 46   0 24.3% 25.8% 49.9% 46.0 
 21. Tamworth 42 11 10 21 43   0 24.8% 25.8% 49.4% 43.0 
 22. North Ferriby United 42 4 9 29 21   0 17.7% 23.4% 58.9% 21.0 

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