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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Chorley 25 15 6 4 51   17 52.6% 25.0% 22.4% 81.8 
 2. Stockport County 24 11 8 5 41   18 51.9% 25.2% 22.9% 73.9 
 3. Bradford Park Avenue 26 13 6 7 45   16 44.0% 26.4% 29.6% 70.4 
 4. Spennymoor Town 23 10 8 5 38   19 41.7% 26.7% 31.6% 67.1 
 5. Chester 26 11 9 6 42   16 43.0% 26.5% 30.4% 66.7 
 6. AFC Telford United 25 12 7 6 43   17 37.7% 26.9% 35.5% 66.5 
 7. Altrincham 25 11 6 8 39   17 36.8% 26.8% 36.5% 62.9 
 8. Blyth Spartans 25 11 5 9 38   17 38.8% 26.8% 34.5% 62.5 
 9. Brackley Town 25 9 9 7 36   17 45.4% 26.4% 28.2% 62.4 
 10. Kidderminster Harriers 25 10 7 8 37   17 40.8% 26.7% 32.5% 62.2 
 11. Boston United 25 10 4 11 34   17 37.6% 26.9% 35.5% 57.7 
 12. Southport 24 8 8 8 32   18 40.3% 26.8% 32.9% 57.6 
 13. Guiseley 23 6 11 6 29   19 39.4% 26.7% 33.9% 56.4 
 14. Leamington 25 7 10 8 31   17 31.8% 26.6% 41.5% 52.0 
 15. York City 25 8 6 11 30   17 33.2% 26.9% 39.9% 51.8 
 16. Darlington 26 7 10 9 31   16 34.7% 26.8% 38.5% 51.2 
 17. Curzon Ashton 25 8 7 10 31   17 30.4% 26.6% 43.0% 50.6 
 18. Alfreton Town 26 8 7 11 31   16 30.4% 26.6% 43.0% 50.4 
 19. Hereford 24 6 7 11 25   18 31.6% 26.6% 41.7% 47.4 
 20. FC United of Manchester 26 6 6 14 24   16 27.0% 26.2% 46.7% 41.9 
 21. Ashton United 24 5 5 14 20   18 19.7% 24.0% 56.2% 34.9 
 22. Nuneaton Borough 26 3 6 17 15   16 21.6% 24.8% 53.7% 29.4 

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