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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Cambridge United 43 23 8 12 77   3 45.4% 26.6% 28.0% 82.5 
 2. Cheltenham Town 42 22 9 11 75   4 48.8% 26.0% 25.2% 82.3 
 3. Bolton Wanderers 43 21 10 12 73   3 45.4% 26.6% 28.0% 77.4 
 4. Morecambe 43 21 9 13 72   3 42.0% 26.9% 31.1% 76.6 
 5. Tranmere Rovers 43 19 12 12 69   3 43.1% 26.8% 30.1% 74.2 
 6. Forest Green Rovers 43 18 13 12 67   4 36.5% 27.1% 36.4% 72.4 
 7. Newport County 42 18 11 13 65   4 40.7% 26.9% 32.5% 71.0 
 8. Exeter City 42 16 14 12 62   4 41.9% 26.9% 31.2% 68.4 
 9. Salford City 42 16 14 12 62   4 41.5% 26.9% 31.7% 68.3 
 10. Carlisle United 43 17 9 17 60   4 36.0% 27.0% 37.0% 65.3 
 11. Leyton Orient 43 17 10 16 61   3 36.6% 27.1% 36.4% 65.2 
 12. Bradford City 43 16 11 16 59   4 36.1% 27.1% 36.8% 64.3 
 13. Crawley Town 43 16 11 16 59   3 35.6% 27.0% 37.4% 63.0 
 14. Port Vale 43 16 9 18 57   3 40.1% 27.0% 32.9% 61.9 
 15. Oldham Athletic 44 15 10 19 55   3 36.7% 27.0% 36.3% 59.7 
 16. Harrogate Town 44 16 8 20 56   3 31.8% 26.9% 41.3% 59.0 
 17. Stevenage 43 12 17 14 53   3 33.6% 27.0% 39.4% 56.7 
 18. Mansfield Town 43 11 19 13 52   3 35.7% 27.0% 37.3% 55.6 
 19. Walsall 43 10 19 14 49   3 31.4% 26.9% 41.7% 52.6 
 20. Scunthorpe United 43 13 9 21 48   4 27.7% 26.5% 45.8% 52.5 
 21. Barrow 42 12 10 20 46   4 31.2% 26.8% 41.9% 50.6 
 22. Colchester United 43 10 17 16 47   3 30.3% 26.8% 43.0% 49.8 
 23. Southend United 43 8 14 21 38   3 26.2% 26.3% 47.5% 41.3 
 24. Grimsby Town 42 8 13 21 37   4 24.5% 25.8% 49.7% 40.4 

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