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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Lincoln City 31 17 10 4 61   15 51.2% 25.3% 23.4% 87.6 
 2. Mansfield Town 32 15 13 4 58   14 50.2% 25.6% 24.3% 82.7 
 3. Bury 32 16 9 7 57   14 48.2% 26.0% 25.9% 80.9 
 4. Carlisle United 32 16 4 12 52   14 45.4% 26.5% 28.0% 74.7 
 5. Exeter City 31 14 9 8 51   15 44.8% 26.5% 28.7% 74.6 
 6. Milton Keynes Dons 32 15 8 9 53   14 41.8% 26.8% 31.4% 74.6 
 7. Colchester United 32 15 7 10 52   14 41.3% 26.8% 31.9% 72.3 
 8. Forest Green Rovers 32 13 12 7 51   14 41.9% 26.8% 31.3% 72.3 
 9. Oldham Athletic 31 12 9 10 45   15 43.4% 26.7% 29.9% 67.9 
 10. Swindon Town 32 12 10 10 46   14 36.6% 27.0% 36.4% 66.0 
 11. Tranmere Rovers 31 12 9 10 45   15 36.5% 27.0% 36.5% 64.6 
 12. Crewe Alexandra 32 13 6 13 45   14 35.5% 27.0% 37.5% 64.2 
 13. Stevenage 32 14 5 13 47   14 33.1% 27.0% 40.0% 63.8 
 14. Newport County 31 12 7 12 43   15 34.5% 27.0% 38.6% 62.5 
 15. Grimsby Town 32 13 4 15 43   14 35.7% 27.0% 37.3% 62.2 
 16. Northampton Town 32 8 14 10 38   14 37.3% 27.0% 35.7% 58.1 
 17. Cheltenham Town 31 9 8 14 35   15 31.0% 26.8% 42.2% 52.9 
 18. Crawley Town 32 11 4 17 37   14 28.8% 26.4% 44.8% 52.7 
 19. Cambridge United 31 10 5 16 35   15 30.6% 26.7% 42.8% 52.6 
 20. Port Vale 31 8 9 14 33   15 28.0% 26.4% 45.5% 50.1 
 21. Morecambe 31 7 8 16 29   15 25.9% 26.1% 47.9% 45.1 
 22. Yeovil Town 32 7 9 16 30   14 25.0% 25.8% 49.2% 44.6 
 23. Macclesfield Town 32 7 7 18 28   14 27.6% 26.4% 46.0% 43.6 
 24. Notts County 31 5 10 16 25   15 27.3% 26.4% 46.3% 41.6 

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