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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Accrington Stanley 46 29 6 11 93   0 52.8% 25.3% 21.9% 93.0 
 2. Luton Town 46 25 13 8 88   0 53.4% 25.2% 21.4% 88.0 
 3. Wycombe Wanderers 46 24 12 10 84   0 47.1% 26.6% 26.3% 84.0 
 4. Exeter City 46 24 8 14 80   0 43.1% 27.0% 29.9% 80.0 
 5. Notts County 46 21 14 11 77   0 43.3% 27.0% 29.7% 77.0 
 6. Lincoln City 46 20 15 11 75   0 44.7% 26.9% 28.4% 75.0 
 7. Coventry City 46 22 9 15 75   0 43.2% 27.0% 29.8% 75.0 
 8. Mansfield Town 46 18 18 10 72   0 41.3% 27.2% 31.5% 72.0 
 9. Swindon Town 46 20 8 18 68   0 38.0% 27.4% 34.7% 68.0 
 10. Carlisle United 46 17 16 13 67   0 41.5% 27.2% 31.3% 67.0 
 11. Cambridge United 46 17 13 16 64   0 37.8% 27.3% 34.8% 64.0 
 12. Newport County 46 16 16 14 64   0 34.9% 27.3% 37.7% 64.0 
 13. Colchester United 46 16 14 16 62   0 35.2% 27.4% 37.4% 62.0 
 14. Crawley Town 46 16 11 19 59   0 30.6% 26.9% 42.4% 59.0 
 15. Crewe Alexandra 46 17 5 24 56   0 34.0% 27.5% 38.5% 56.0 
 16. Stevenage 46 14 13 19 55   0 32.6% 27.3% 40.1% 55.0 
 17. Cheltenham Town 46 13 12 21 51   0 29.8% 27.0% 43.2% 51.0 
 18. Grimsby Town 46 13 12 21 51   0 27.9% 26.7% 45.4% 51.0 
 19. Yeovil Town 46 12 12 22 48   0 29.6% 27.0% 43.4% 48.0 
 20. Forest Green Rovers 46 13 8 25 47   0 28.4% 26.8% 44.8% 47.0 
 21. Port Vale 46 11 14 21 47   0 30.0% 26.9% 43.0% 47.0 
 22. Morecambe 46 9 19 18 46   0 27.7% 26.7% 45.6% 46.0 
 23. Barnet 46 12 10 24 46   0 28.4% 26.8% 44.7% 46.0 
 24. Chesterfield 46 10 8 28 38   0 22.2% 25.6% 52.2% 38.0 

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