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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Plymouth Argyle 46 26 9 11 87   0 49.6% 26.0% 24.4% 87.0 
 2. Portsmouth 46 26 9 11 87   0 54.6% 24.7% 20.7% 87.0 
 3. Doncaster Rovers 46 25 10 11 85   0 46.7% 26.3% 26.9% 85.0 
 4. Luton Town 46 20 17 9 77   0 47.4% 26.4% 26.2% 77.0 
 5. Exeter City 46 21 8 17 71   0 42.9% 27.0% 30.1% 71.0 
 6. Carlisle United 46 18 17 11 71   0 35.3% 27.3% 37.4% 71.0 
 7. Blackpool 46 18 16 12 70   0 49.2% 26.0% 24.8% 70.0 
 8. Colchester United 46 19 12 15 69   0 41.3% 27.0% 31.6% 69.0 
 9. Wycombe Wanderers 46 19 12 15 69   0 41.2% 27.0% 31.8% 69.0 
 10. Stevenage 46 20 7 19 67   0 37.0% 27.3% 35.7% 67.0 
 11. Cambridge United 46 19 9 18 66   0 39.9% 27.2% 32.9% 66.0 
 12. Mansfield Town 46 17 15 14 66   0 38.6% 27.2% 34.2% 66.0 
 13. Accrington Stanley 46 17 14 15 65   0 44.0% 26.8% 29.2% 65.0 
 14. Grimsby Town 46 17 11 18 62   0 35.5% 27.2% 37.3% 62.0 
 15. Barnet 46 14 15 17 57   0 32.3% 27.2% 40.5% 57.0 
 16. Crewe Alexandra 46 15 12 19 57   0 33.0% 27.1% 39.8% 57.0 
 17. Notts County 46 16 8 22 56   0 30.1% 26.9% 43.0% 56.0 
 18. Crawley Town 46 13 12 21 51   0 25.1% 26.1% 48.8% 51.0 
 19. Morecambe 46 14 9 23 51   0 24.4% 26.1% 49.6% 51.0 
 20. Cheltenham Town 46 12 14 20 50   0 30.8% 27.0% 42.3% 50.0 
 21. Yeovil Town 46 11 17 18 50   0 28.6% 26.8% 44.6% 50.0 
 22. Newport County 46 12 12 22 48   0 28.4% 26.7% 44.9% 48.0 
 23. Hartlepool United 46 11 13 22 46   0 25.2% 26.1% 48.7% 46.0 
 24. Leyton Orient 46 10 6 30 36   0 20.0% 24.4% 55.5% 36.0 

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