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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Lincoln City 44 23 16 5 85   2 53.0% 24.9% 22.1% 88.6 
 2. Bury 44 22 11 11 77   2 44.9% 26.5% 28.6% 80.2 
 3. Mansfield Town 44 20 16 8 76   2 49.0% 25.8% 25.2% 79.2 
 4. Milton Keynes Dons 44 22 10 12 76   2 43.9% 26.5% 29.6% 78.9 
 5. Forest Green Rovers 44 20 13 11 73   2 43.5% 26.5% 29.9% 76.0 
 6. Tranmere Rovers 44 20 12 12 72   2 43.6% 26.5% 29.9% 75.1 
 7. Exeter City 44 18 12 14 66   2 39.7% 26.8% 33.5% 68.5 
 8. Newport County 43 18 10 15 64   3 40.7% 26.7% 32.6% 68.0 
 9. Carlisle United 44 19 7 18 64   2 36.8% 27.0% 36.2% 67.5 
 10. Stevenage 44 18 10 16 64   2 37.3% 26.9% 35.8% 66.5 
 11. Oldham Athletic 43 16 14 13 62   3 45.0% 26.5% 28.5% 66.4 
 12. Colchester United 44 18 10 16 64   2 33.7% 26.9% 39.4% 65.9 
 13. Crewe Alexandra 44 18 8 18 62   2 37.3% 26.9% 35.8% 64.8 
 14. Swindon Town 44 15 16 13 61   2 39.0% 26.7% 34.3% 64.3 
 15. Northampton Town 44 13 18 13 57   2 38.1% 27.1% 34.8% 60.1 
 16. Cheltenham Town 44 14 12 18 54   2 34.7% 26.9% 38.3% 56.5 
 17. Grimsby Town 44 15 8 21 53   2 30.0% 26.5% 43.4% 55.6 
 18. Morecambe 44 13 11 20 50   2 31.6% 26.6% 41.8% 52.5 
 19. Crawley Town 44 14 8 22 50   2 28.7% 26.5% 44.8% 52.0 
 20. Port Vale 44 12 12 20 48   2 27.6% 26.3% 46.1% 50.3 
 21. Cambridge United 44 12 10 22 46   2 29.6% 26.5% 43.9% 48.7 
 22. Macclesfield Town 44 9 13 22 40   2 27.9% 26.4% 45.7% 42.7 
 23. Notts County 44 8 14 22 38   2 26.9% 26.2% 46.9% 40.3 
 24. Yeovil Town 44 9 11 24 38   2 20.2% 24.2% 55.6% 39.7 

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