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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Doncaster Rovers 38 23 9 6 78   8 53.1% 25.3% 21.6% 92.0 
 2. Plymouth Argyle 38 22 6 10 72   8 47.7% 26.4% 25.9% 85.0 
 3. Portsmouth 39 20 8 11 68   7 49.2% 26.0% 24.9% 80.6 
 4. Stevenage 39 19 5 15 62   7 44.2% 27.0% 28.8% 73.6 
 5. Blackpool 39 15 15 9 60   7 49.1% 26.0% 24.8% 72.1 
 6. Luton Town 39 15 15 9 60   7 43.7% 27.0% 29.2% 71.6 
 7. Exeter City 39 17 8 14 59   7 42.7% 27.1% 30.3% 70.0 
 8. Carlisle United 39 15 14 10 59   7 33.4% 27.3% 39.3% 68.7 
 9. Colchester United 39 16 9 14 57   7 38.3% 27.4% 34.3% 67.2 
 10. Mansfield Town 39 15 13 11 58   7 38.9% 27.3% 33.8% 66.7 
 11. Cambridge United 38 15 9 14 54   8 40.3% 27.2% 32.5% 65.6 
 12. Wycombe Wanderers 39 15 10 14 55   7 37.7% 27.3% 35.0% 65.4 
 13. Grimsby Town 39 14 10 15 52   7 34.5% 27.3% 38.2% 60.4 
 14. Accrington Stanley 38 12 13 13 49   8 41.1% 27.1% 31.8% 60.4 
 15. Barnet 39 12 15 12 51   7 35.0% 27.3% 37.7% 59.9 
 16. Crewe Alexandra 39 13 11 15 50   7 34.3% 27.3% 38.4% 59.5 
 17. Crawley Town 39 13 9 17 48   7 27.3% 26.6% 46.1% 55.8 
 18. Yeovil Town 39 10 16 13 46   7 32.5% 27.3% 40.3% 54.6 
 19. Notts County 39 13 7 19 46   7 27.8% 26.7% 45.6% 53.1 
 20. Morecambe 39 13 6 20 45   7 25.0% 26.2% 48.8% 51.8 
 21. Hartlepool United 39 10 11 18 41   7 27.6% 26.6% 45.8% 49.1 
 22. Cheltenham Town 39 9 12 18 39   7 29.3% 26.9% 43.7% 47.3 
 23. Newport County 39 7 12 20 33   7 24.2% 26.1% 49.7% 40.3 
 24. Leyton Orient 39 9 5 25 32   7 22.1% 25.4% 52.5% 38.1 

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