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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Luton Town 26 15 6 5 51   20 53.1% 25.4% 21.6% 88.2 
 2. Notts County 26 13 9 4 48   20 45.3% 27.0% 27.7% 81.2 
 3. Accrington Stanley 25 14 3 8 45   21 44.8% 26.9% 28.3% 78.4 
 4. Lincoln City 26 12 8 6 44   20 44.1% 27.0% 28.9% 76.2 
 5. Exeter City 25 14 3 8 45   21 40.1% 27.3% 32.6% 76.0 
 6. Wycombe Wanderers 26 12 7 7 43   20 44.3% 27.0% 28.7% 75.3 
 7. Mansfield Town 26 10 11 5 41   20 43.7% 27.1% 29.3% 73.1 
 8. Swindon Town 25 13 2 10 41   21 42.2% 27.2% 30.6% 72.8 
 9. Coventry City 26 12 5 9 41   20 43.2% 27.0% 29.8% 71.8 
 10. Newport County 26 11 8 7 41   20 38.9% 27.4% 33.8% 69.7 
 11. Colchester United 27 11 7 9 40   19 38.3% 27.4% 34.3% 67.0 
 12. Cambridge United 26 10 8 8 38   20 36.5% 27.5% 36.0% 64.4 
 13. Carlisle United 26 9 7 10 34   20 38.1% 27.4% 34.5% 62.7 
 14. Stevenage 26 9 7 10 34   20 34.7% 27.6% 37.7% 59.7 
 15. Crawley Town 26 10 6 10 36   20 30.9% 27.2% 41.9% 58.9 
 16. Cheltenham Town 27 9 7 11 34   19 31.0% 27.2% 41.8% 56.7 
 17. Port Vale 27 8 5 14 29   19 36.6% 27.5% 35.9% 56.0 
 18. Grimsby Town 27 9 7 11 34   19 28.9% 26.9% 44.2% 55.4 
 19. Crewe Alexandra 26 9 2 15 29   20 28.6% 26.9% 44.6% 51.3 
 20. Yeovil Town 26 7 7 12 28   20 30.5% 27.1% 42.4% 51.2 
 21. Morecambe 26 7 7 12 28   20 26.6% 26.8% 46.6% 48.9 
 22. Forest Green Rovers 26 5 5 16 20   20 26.0% 26.6% 47.4% 41.7 
 23. Chesterfield 27 5 6 16 21   19 26.5% 26.8% 46.7% 41.5 
 24. Barnet 26 5 5 16 20   20 23.4% 25.9% 50.8% 39.3 

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