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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Doncaster Rovers 44 25 10 9 85   2 50.8% 25.7% 23.5% 88.7 
 2. Plymouth Argyle 44 25 8 11 83   2 49.4% 26.0% 24.5% 86.6 
 3. Portsmouth 44 24 9 11 81   2 52.7% 25.3% 22.0% 84.7 
 4. Luton Town 44 18 17 9 71   2 46.0% 26.5% 27.5% 74.4 
 5. Blackpool 44 17 16 11 67   2 47.8% 26.3% 25.9% 71.0 
 6. Exeter City 44 20 8 16 68   2 42.7% 27.0% 30.4% 70.8 
 7. Stevenage 44 20 6 18 66   2 39.2% 27.2% 33.6% 68.9 
 8. Wycombe Wanderers 44 18 11 15 65   2 40.3% 27.2% 32.5% 68.2 
 9. Mansfield Town 44 17 14 13 65   2 39.9% 27.2% 33.0% 67.8 
 10. Carlisle United 44 16 17 11 65   2 33.7% 27.2% 39.1% 67.6 
 11. Colchester United 44 17 12 15 63   2 38.7% 27.3% 34.0% 66.6 
 12. Cambridge United 44 18 9 17 63   2 40.0% 27.2% 32.8% 66.1 
 13. Accrington Stanley 44 16 14 14 62   2 43.9% 26.9% 29.2% 64.8 
 14. Grimsby Town 44 17 10 17 61   2 37.0% 27.2% 35.8% 63.5 
 15. Barnet 44 13 15 16 54   2 32.5% 27.2% 40.2% 56.6 
 16. Crewe Alexandra 44 14 12 18 54   2 31.6% 27.2% 41.2% 56.2 
 17. Notts County 44 15 8 21 53   2 29.6% 26.9% 43.5% 55.2 
 18. Crawley Town 44 13 11 20 50   2 25.7% 26.3% 48.1% 51.9 
 19. Morecambe 44 14 8 22 50   2 24.8% 26.1% 49.2% 51.7 
 20. Yeovil Town 44 11 16 17 49   2 29.6% 26.9% 43.5% 51.1 
 21. Cheltenham Town 44 11 14 19 47   2 30.8% 27.1% 42.1% 49.4 
 22. Newport County 44 11 12 21 45   2 28.2% 26.7% 45.1% 47.5 
 23. Hartlepool United 44 10 13 21 43   2 24.5% 26.1% 49.5% 44.8 
 24. Leyton Orient 44 10 6 28 36   2 20.9% 24.9% 54.2% 37.5 

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