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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Lincoln City 46 23 16 7 85   0 48.8% 25.9% 25.2% 85.0 
 2. Milton Keynes Dons 46 23 10 13 79   0 43.0% 26.7% 30.3% 79.0 
 3. Bury 46 22 13 11 79   0 44.5% 26.5% 29.0% 79.0 
 4. Mansfield Town 46 20 16 10 76   0 46.0% 26.3% 27.6% 76.0 
 5. Forest Green Rovers 46 20 14 12 74   0 42.3% 26.6% 31.1% 74.0 
 6. Tranmere Rovers 46 20 13 13 73   0 41.3% 26.7% 32.0% 73.0 
 7. Newport County 46 20 11 15 71   0 43.5% 26.6% 29.9% 71.0 
 8. Colchester United 46 20 10 16 70   0 38.7% 26.9% 34.4% 70.0 
 9. Exeter City 46 19 13 14 70   0 41.1% 26.7% 32.2% 70.0 
 10. Stevenage 46 20 10 16 70   0 40.5% 26.8% 32.7% 70.0 
 11. Carlisle United 46 20 8 18 68   0 37.6% 27.1% 35.4% 68.0 
 12. Crewe Alexandra 46 19 8 19 65   0 36.4% 27.0% 36.6% 65.0 
 13. Swindon Town 46 16 16 14 64   0 38.8% 27.0% 34.2% 64.0 
 14. Oldham Athletic 46 16 14 16 62   0 39.7% 26.9% 33.4% 62.0 
 15. Northampton Town 46 14 19 13 61   0 39.8% 26.9% 33.3% 61.0 
 16. Cheltenham Town 46 15 12 19 57   0 34.4% 27.0% 38.7% 57.0 
 17. Grimsby Town 46 16 8 22 56   0 30.6% 26.8% 42.6% 56.0 
 18. Morecambe 46 14 12 20 54   0 32.8% 26.9% 40.3% 54.0 
 19. Crawley Town 46 15 8 23 53   0 29.5% 26.7% 43.9% 53.0 
 20. Port Vale 46 12 13 21 49   0 27.0% 26.2% 46.8% 49.0 
 21. Cambridge United 46 12 11 23 47   0 28.4% 26.5% 45.2% 47.0 
 22. Macclesfield Town 46 10 14 22 44   0 28.8% 26.5% 44.7% 44.0 
 23. Notts County 46 9 14 23 41   0 26.8% 26.2% 47.0% 41.0 
 24. Yeovil Town 46 9 13 24 40   0 20.8% 24.6% 54.7% 40.0 

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