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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Chesterfield 46 31 5 10 98   0 51.3% 25.2% 23.5% 98.0 
 2. Barnet 46 26 8 12 86   0 48.2% 25.7% 26.1% 86.0 
 3. Bromley 46 22 15 9 81   0 47.7% 25.7% 26.6% 81.0 
 4. Altrincham 46 22 11 13 77   0 43.9% 26.4% 29.7% 77.0 
 5. Solihull Moors 46 21 13 12 76   0 42.3% 26.5% 31.1% 76.0 
 6. Southend United 46 21 12 13 75   0 47.2% 25.8% 27.0% 75.0 
 7. Gateshead 46 22 9 15 75   0 42.2% 26.6% 31.2% 75.0 
 8. FC Halifax Town 46 19 14 13 71   0 43.0% 26.5% 30.5% 71.0 
 9. Aldershot Town 46 20 9 17 69   0 34.6% 26.8% 38.6% 69.0 
 10. Oldham Athletic 46 15 18 13 63   0 36.7% 26.7% 36.6% 63.0 
 11. Rochdale 46 16 14 16 62   0 39.9% 26.7% 33.4% 62.0 
 12. Hartlepool United 46 17 9 20 60   0 36.5% 26.7% 36.8% 60.0 
 13. Eastleigh 46 16 11 19 59   0 32.7% 26.6% 40.7% 59.0 
 14. Maidenhead United 46 15 13 18 58   0 34.0% 26.7% 39.3% 58.0 
 15. Dagenham and Redbridge 46 14 14 18 56   0 37.3% 26.7% 36.0% 56.0 
 16. Wealdstone 46 15 11 20 56   0 29.7% 26.3% 44.0% 56.0 
 17. Woking 46 15 10 21 55   0 35.1% 26.7% 38.2% 55.0 
 18. AFC Fylde 46 15 10 21 55   0 33.9% 26.7% 39.4% 55.0 
 19. Ebbsfleet United 46 14 12 20 54   0 33.4% 26.7% 39.9% 54.0 
 20. York City 46 12 17 17 53   0 32.6% 26.6% 40.8% 53.0 
 21. Boreham Wood 46 12 16 18 52   0 32.6% 26.6% 40.8% 52.0 
 22. Kidderminster Harriers 46 11 13 22 46   0 27.5% 26.0% 46.5% 46.0 
 23. Dorking Wanderers 46 12 9 25 45   0 23.9% 25.3% 50.8% 45.0 
 24. Oxford City 46 8 9 29 33   0 19.0% 23.5% 57.5% 33.0 

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