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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Leyton Orient 15 9 5 1 32   31 49.4% 25.8% 24.8% 85.9 
 2. Salford City 15 10 3 2 33   31 45.9% 26.3% 27.8% 83.6 
 3. Harrogate Town 15 9 5 1 32   31 43.2% 26.7% 30.1% 81.7 
 4. Wrexham 15 9 4 2 31   31 45.8% 26.4% 27.8% 81.5 
 5. AFC Fylde 15 6 8 1 26   31 47.5% 26.2% 26.3% 78.6 
 6. Sutton United 15 7 5 3 26   31 42.6% 26.7% 30.7% 74.6 
 7. Solihull Moors 15 9 1 5 28   31 39.4% 26.9% 33.7% 73.7 
 8. Barnet 15 6 4 5 22   31 44.5% 26.5% 28.9% 71.4 
 9. Hartlepool United 15 7 6 2 27   31 38.6% 27.0% 34.4% 69.9 
 10. Gateshead 15 8 2 5 26   31 38.1% 26.9% 35.0% 68.9 
 11. Eastleigh 15 7 2 6 23   31 34.2% 27.1% 38.7% 63.7 
 12. Ebbsfleet United 15 5 3 7 18   31 39.0% 27.0% 34.1% 63.1 
 13. Boreham Wood 15 5 4 6 19   31 37.8% 26.9% 35.3% 62.2 
 14. Aldershot Town 15 5 2 8 17   31 37.6% 27.0% 35.4% 60.4 
 15. Bromley 15 4 5 6 17   31 36.3% 27.0% 36.7% 59.6 
 16. Barrow 15 6 3 6 21   31 33.3% 26.9% 39.8% 59.1 
 17. FC Halifax Town 15 5 5 5 20   31 32.6% 26.9% 40.5% 58.9 
 18. Maidenhead United 15 5 2 8 17   31 32.7% 26.9% 40.5% 55.4 
 19. Chesterfield 15 3 4 8 13   31 33.1% 26.9% 40.0% 51.9 
 20. Maidstone United 15 4 2 9 14   31 26.6% 26.1% 47.3% 46.6 
 21. Dagenham and Redbridge 15 2 3 10 9   31 29.0% 26.7% 44.3% 43.9 
 22. Havant and Waterlooville 15 2 5 8 11   31 25.5% 26.1% 48.4% 43.6 
 23. Dover Athletic 15 1 4 10 7   31 29.3% 26.7% 44.0% 43.4 
 24. Braintree Town 15 1 3 11 6   31 19.1% 23.8% 57.2% 30.6 

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