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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Lincoln City 45 30 8 7 98   1 58.0% 23.8% 18.1% 100.3 
 2. Tranmere Rovers 44 27 8 9 89   2 54.6% 24.5% 20.9% 92.9 
 3. Forest Green Rovers 45 25 10 10 85   1 49.8% 26.0% 24.3% 86.7 
 4. Dagenham and Redbridge 45 26 5 14 83   1 47.1% 26.2% 26.6% 84.9 
 5. Aldershot Town 45 22 13 10 79   1 49.0% 26.0% 25.0% 81.0 
 6. Dover Athletic 45 23 7 15 76   1 44.3% 26.7% 29.0% 77.3 
 7. Barrow 45 20 15 10 75   1 43.5% 26.8% 29.7% 76.5 
 8. Gateshead 45 19 13 13 70   1 42.6% 26.9% 30.5% 71.8 
 9. Macclesfield Town 45 20 7 18 67   1 37.7% 27.1% 35.1% 68.5 
 10. Bromley 45 17 8 20 59   1 32.7% 26.9% 40.4% 59.9 
 11. Maidstone United 45 16 10 19 58   1 33.4% 27.0% 39.6% 58.9 
 12. Sutton United 45 15 12 18 57   1 37.9% 27.2% 34.9% 58.2 
 13. Wrexham 45 15 12 18 57   1 32.7% 26.9% 40.4% 58.2 
 14. Eastleigh 45 14 14 17 56   1 32.8% 26.9% 40.3% 57.5 
 15. Boreham Wood 45 14 13 18 55   1 29.9% 26.8% 43.3% 56.3 
 16. Solihull Moors 45 15 9 21 54   1 31.5% 26.9% 41.6% 55.3 
 17. Chester 44 14 10 20 52   2 26.7% 26.4% 46.9% 54.1 
 18. Woking 45 14 10 21 52   1 33.4% 27.0% 39.6% 52.9 
 19. Torquay United 45 13 11 21 50   1 32.2% 26.9% 40.9% 51.9 
 20. Guiseley 45 13 11 21 50   1 30.3% 26.7% 43.0% 51.4 
 21. York City 45 11 16 18 49   1 33.0% 26.9% 40.1% 50.0 
 22. Braintree Town 45 13 9 23 48   1 29.2% 26.7% 44.1% 48.7 
 23. North Ferriby United 45 12 3 30 39   1 19.9% 24.5% 55.6% 39.8 
 24. Southport 45 10 8 27 38   1 21.4% 24.9% 53.7% 38.5 

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