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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Lincoln City 46 30 9 7 99   0 56.7% 24.1% 19.2% 99.0 
 2. Tranmere Rovers 45 28 8 9 92   1 54.9% 24.4% 20.7% 94.1 
 3. Forest Green Rovers 46 25 11 10 86   0 52.7% 25.2% 22.0% 86.0 
 4. Dagenham and Redbridge 46 26 6 14 84   0 45.3% 26.5% 28.2% 84.0 
 5. Aldershot Town 46 23 13 10 82   0 48.3% 26.1% 25.6% 82.0 
 6. Dover Athletic 46 24 7 15 79   0 45.4% 26.5% 28.1% 79.0 
 7. Barrow 46 20 15 11 75   0 42.2% 27.0% 30.9% 75.0 
 8. Gateshead 46 19 13 14 70   0 40.0% 27.1% 32.9% 70.0 
 9. Macclesfield Town 46 20 8 18 68   0 38.1% 27.1% 34.8% 68.0 
 10. Bromley 46 18 8 20 62   0 34.9% 27.1% 38.0% 62.0 
 11. Boreham Wood 46 15 13 18 58   0 31.4% 26.9% 41.7% 58.0 
 12. Maidstone United 46 16 10 20 58   0 33.3% 27.0% 39.7% 58.0 
 13. Sutton United 46 15 13 18 58   0 38.3% 27.0% 34.6% 58.0 
 14. Wrexham 46 15 13 18 58   0 32.8% 26.9% 40.3% 58.0 
 15. Eastleigh 46 14 15 17 57   0 32.6% 26.9% 40.4% 57.0 
 16. Solihull Moors 46 15 10 21 55   0 31.5% 26.9% 41.6% 55.0 
 17. Torquay United 46 14 11 21 53   0 33.2% 27.0% 39.8% 53.0 
 18. Woking 46 14 11 21 53   0 34.0% 27.0% 39.0% 53.0 
 19. Chester 45 14 10 21 52   1 25.1% 26.1% 48.8% 52.7 
 20. Guiseley 46 13 12 21 51   0 30.2% 26.6% 43.2% 51.0 
 21. York City 46 11 17 18 50   0 33.2% 27.0% 39.7% 50.0 
 22. Braintree Town 46 13 9 24 48   0 28.4% 26.6% 44.9% 48.0 
 23. Southport 46 10 9 27 39   0 21.8% 25.1% 53.1% 39.0 
 24. North Ferriby United 46 12 3 31 39   0 19.4% 24.1% 56.5% 39.0 

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