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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Macclesfield Town 46 27 11 8 92   0 52.2% 25.5% 22.3% 92.0 
 2. Tranmere Rovers 46 24 10 12 82   0 54.8% 24.6% 20.6% 82.0 
 3. Sutton United 46 23 10 13 79   0 41.9% 27.0% 31.1% 79.0 
 4. Aldershot Town 46 20 15 11 75   0 43.8% 26.9% 29.3% 75.0 
 5. Boreham Wood 46 20 15 11 75   0 43.3% 26.9% 29.7% 75.0 
 6. Ebbsfleet United 46 19 17 10 74   0 44.9% 26.7% 28.4% 74.0 
 7. AFC Fylde 46 20 13 13 73   0 45.1% 26.6% 28.3% 73.0 
 8. Dover Athletic 46 20 13 13 73   0 43.6% 27.0% 29.4% 73.0 
 9. Bromley 46 19 13 14 70   0 40.6% 27.0% 32.4% 70.0 
 10. Wrexham 46 17 19 10 70   0 38.0% 27.2% 34.9% 70.0 
 11. Dagenham and Redbridge 46 19 11 16 68   0 39.2% 27.1% 33.7% 68.0 
 12. Maidenhead United 46 17 13 16 64   0 36.9% 27.3% 35.8% 64.0 
 13. Leyton Orient 46 16 12 18 60   0 38.4% 27.0% 34.6% 60.0 
 14. Hartlepool United 46 14 14 18 56   0 33.3% 27.2% 39.5% 56.0 
 15. Eastleigh 46 13 17 16 56   0 32.1% 27.1% 40.8% 56.0 
 16. FC Halifax Town 46 13 16 17 55   0 32.6% 27.1% 40.3% 55.0 
 17. Gateshead 46 12 18 16 54   0 33.2% 27.1% 39.7% 54.0 
 18. Maidstone United 46 13 15 18 54   0 30.5% 26.8% 42.8% 54.0 
 19. Solihull Moors 46 14 12 20 54   0 35.1% 27.3% 37.6% 54.0 
 20. Barrow 46 11 16 19 49   0 31.0% 26.8% 42.2% 49.0 
 21. Woking 46 13 9 24 48   0 24.6% 26.0% 49.4% 48.0 
 22. Torquay United 46 10 12 24 42   0 26.7% 26.5% 46.8% 42.0 
 23. Chester 46 8 13 25 37   0 19.9% 24.4% 55.7% 37.0 
 24. Guiseley 46 7 12 27 33   0 19.7% 24.3% 56.0% 33.0 

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