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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Lincoln City 36 23 6 7 75   10 54.2% 24.8% 20.9% 94.3 
 2. Forest Green Rovers 39 22 9 8 75   7 52.2% 25.3% 22.5% 88.6 
 3. Tranmere Rovers 36 21 7 8 70   10 51.6% 25.4% 23.0% 88.4 
 4. Dagenham and Redbridge 39 22 4 13 70   7 42.2% 26.9% 30.9% 80.3 
 5. Dover Athletic 39 21 6 12 69   7 44.9% 26.6% 28.4% 79.6 
 6. Aldershot Town 40 19 11 10 68   6 46.0% 26.5% 27.4% 78.3 
 7. Barrow 39 17 14 8 65   7 44.9% 26.7% 28.5% 77.4 
 8. Gateshead 40 18 13 9 67   6 47.1% 26.4% 26.5% 76.8 
 9. Macclesfield Town 37 17 6 14 57   9 42.1% 26.8% 31.1% 71.6 
 10. Wrexham 40 14 12 14 54   6 35.3% 27.3% 37.4% 62.0 
 11. Eastleigh 40 13 14 13 53   6 37.2% 27.3% 35.5% 61.6 
 12. Boreham Wood 40 13 13 14 52   6 34.3% 27.2% 38.5% 60.1 
 13. Chester 37 13 10 14 49   9 31.4% 26.9% 41.7% 59.2 
 14. Sutton United 38 13 9 16 48   8 35.6% 27.3% 37.0% 58.0 
 15. Solihull Moors 39 13 9 17 48   7 32.1% 26.9% 41.0% 56.5 
 16. Bromley 39 14 7 18 49   7 29.5% 26.6% 43.9% 56.4 
 17. Guiseley 40 12 10 18 46   6 32.1% 26.9% 41.0% 53.5 
 18. Braintree Town 40 12 9 19 45   6 33.1% 27.1% 39.8% 52.4 
 19. Maidstone United 38 12 8 18 44   8 28.1% 26.6% 45.3% 51.2 
 20. Torquay United 39 10 10 19 40   7 28.8% 26.7% 44.5% 47.9 
 21. Woking 40 11 8 21 41   6 29.5% 26.7% 43.8% 47.7 
 22. York City 38 7 15 16 36   8 29.7% 26.7% 43.6% 45.5 
 23. Southport 39 9 7 23 34   7 20.7% 24.8% 54.5% 39.0 
 24. North Ferriby United 40 10 3 27 33   6 19.7% 24.3% 56.0% 37.5 

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