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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Aldershot Town 11 6 2 3 20   35 48.3% 26.5% 25.2% 79.6 
 2. Dover Athletic 11 6 2 3 20   35 46.8% 26.7% 26.4% 79.1 
 3. Dagenham and Redbridge 11 5 4 2 19   35 46.6% 26.8% 26.6% 77.5 
 4. Tranmere Rovers 11 3 4 4 13   35 48.4% 26.5% 25.1% 72.8 
 5. Maidenhead United 11 5 3 3 18   35 39.2% 27.5% 33.3% 69.2 
 6. FC Halifax Town 11 5 3 3 18   35 39.2% 27.5% 33.3% 68.9 
 7. Sutton United 11 6 1 4 19   35 37.1% 27.5% 35.4% 67.8 
 8. Maidstone United 11 5 3 3 18   35 37.3% 27.5% 35.2% 67.7 
 9. Hartlepool United 11 4 3 4 15   35 39.1% 27.5% 33.4% 65.6 
 10. Ebbsfleet United 11 1 9 1 12   35 41.3% 27.4% 31.3% 65.5 
 11. Bromley 11 5 3 3 18   35 36.4% 27.3% 36.2% 65.2 
 12. Gateshead 11 4 3 4 15   35 38.9% 27.5% 33.6% 65.1 
 13. Boreham Wood 11 5 2 4 17   35 35.4% 27.4% 37.2% 64.3 
 14. Wrexham 11 5 3 3 18   35 34.5% 27.5% 38.0% 63.5 
 15. Woking 11 6 0 5 18   35 34.5% 27.5% 38.0% 63.2 
 16. Macclesfield Town 11 5 2 4 17   35 34.9% 27.6% 37.5% 62.7 
 17. Barrow 11 2 6 3 12   35 38.9% 27.5% 33.6% 62.2 
 18. Leyton Orient 11 5 1 5 16   35 32.3% 27.4% 40.3% 58.9 
 19. Eastleigh 11 2 7 2 13   35 33.3% 27.4% 39.3% 58.0 
 20. AFC Fylde 11 2 6 3 12   35 33.5% 27.4% 39.1% 57.2 
 21. Guiseley 11 1 5 5 8   35 26.2% 26.8% 47.1% 45.3 
 22. Chester 10 1 5 4 8   36 23.7% 26.0% 50.3% 43.2 
 23. Solihull Moors 10 1 1 8 4   36 24.2% 26.2% 49.7% 39.9 
 24. Torquay United 11 0 4 7 4   35 24.4% 26.3% 49.3% 38.4 

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