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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE ONE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Sheffield United 46 30 10 6 100   0 57.6% 23.8% 18.6% 100.0 
 2. Bolton Wanderers 46 25 11 10 86   0 50.7% 25.7% 23.6% 86.0 
 3. Fleetwood Town 46 23 13 10 82   0 46.3% 26.5% 27.2% 82.0 
 4. Scunthorpe United 46 24 10 12 82   0 45.9% 26.5% 27.6% 82.0 
 5. Bradford City 46 20 19 7 79   0 47.8% 26.2% 26.0% 79.0 
 6. Millwall 46 20 13 13 73   0 46.5% 26.4% 27.0% 73.0 
 7. Southend United 46 20 12 14 72   0 42.5% 27.0% 30.6% 72.0 
 8. Rochdale 46 19 12 15 69   0 39.9% 27.1% 32.9% 69.0 
 9. Oxford United 46 20 9 17 69   0 43.5% 26.8% 29.7% 69.0 
 10. Bristol Rovers 46 18 12 16 66   0 35.3% 27.2% 37.6% 66.0 
 11. Peterborough United 46 17 11 18 62   0 34.1% 27.2% 38.7% 62.0 
 12. Milton Keynes Dons 46 16 13 17 61   0 40.1% 27.2% 32.7% 61.0 
 13. Charlton Athletic 46 14 18 14 60   0 38.6% 27.4% 34.1% 60.0 
 14. Walsall 46 14 16 16 58   0 33.1% 27.1% 39.8% 58.0 
 15. AFC Wimbledon 46 13 18 15 57   0 31.5% 27.1% 41.4% 57.0 
 16. Northampton Town 46 14 11 21 53   0 29.7% 26.8% 43.5% 53.0 
 17. Oldham Athletic 46 12 17 17 53   0 33.5% 27.1% 39.4% 53.0 
 18. Shrewsbury Town 46 13 12 21 51   0 29.6% 26.8% 43.6% 51.0 
 19. Gillingham 46 12 14 20 50   0 28.2% 26.6% 45.2% 50.0 
 20. Bury 46 13 11 22 50   0 29.9% 26.9% 43.2% 50.0 
 21. Port Vale 46 12 13 21 49   0 26.2% 26.3% 47.6% 49.0 
 22. Swindon Town 46 11 11 24 44   0 26.2% 26.3% 47.6% 44.0 
 23. Coventry City 46 9 12 25 39   0 23.8% 25.9% 50.3% 39.0 
 24. Chesterfield 46 9 10 27 37   0 21.2% 25.0% 53.8% 37.0 

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