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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE ONE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Wigan Athletic 16 11 3 2 36   30 51.8% 25.7% 22.5% 90.3 
 2. Shrewsbury Town 16 11 4 1 37   30 43.4% 27.1% 29.5% 84.1 
 3. Blackburn Rovers 15 7 4 4 25   31 54.3% 25.0% 20.7% 83.8 
 4. Charlton Athletic 15 9 3 3 30   31 43.3% 27.1% 29.5% 78.0 
 5. Bradford City 17 9 3 5 30   29 47.0% 26.6% 26.4% 77.7 
 6. Scunthorpe United 17 8 5 4 29   29 46.4% 26.6% 26.9% 76.8 
 7. Fleetwood Town 17 7 4 6 25   29 41.1% 27.3% 31.7% 68.9 
 8. Oxford United 17 6 5 6 23   29 40.0% 27.3% 32.7% 65.1 
 9. Portsmouth 17 7 2 8 23   29 37.7% 27.5% 34.9% 64.1 
 10. Peterborough United 15 7 3 5 24   31 34.0% 27.4% 38.5% 64.0 
 11. Southend United 16 6 5 5 23   30 36.5% 27.4% 36.1% 63.6 
 12. Rotherham United 17 8 2 7 26   29 33.1% 27.2% 39.7% 62.7 
 13. Milton Keynes Dons 17 6 4 7 22   29 36.3% 27.4% 36.3% 60.9 
 14. Blackpool 16 6 4 6 22   30 33.2% 27.2% 39.6% 59.4 
 15. Oldham Athletic 16 5 3 8 18   30 33.1% 27.2% 39.7% 57.3 
 16. Bristol Rovers 17 7 0 10 21   29 30.6% 27.1% 42.3% 55.7 
 17. Rochdale 16 3 8 5 17   30 34.4% 27.5% 38.1% 55.5 
 18. Walsall 16 4 7 5 19   30 31.2% 27.2% 41.7% 55.1 
 19. Doncaster Rovers 17 5 4 8 19   29 32.4% 27.4% 40.2% 54.5 
 20. AFC Wimbledon 16 4 3 9 15   30 30.3% 26.9% 42.8% 50.4 
 21. Northampton Town 17 5 3 9 18   29 26.5% 26.7% 46.8% 49.1 
 22. Gillingham 17 3 6 8 15   29 28.6% 26.9% 44.5% 48.3 
 23. Plymouth Argyle 17 3 5 9 14   29 27.0% 26.7% 46.3% 46.0 
 24. Bury 17 3 4 10 13   29 24.4% 26.1% 49.4% 41.9 

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