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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE ONE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Portsmouth 44 27 13 4 94   2 56.2% 23.6% 20.2% 97.5 
 2. Derby County 44 26 8 10 86   2 54.0% 24.1% 21.9% 90.2 
 3. Bolton Wanderers 44 24 11 9 83   2 51.1% 24.9% 24.0% 86.6 
 4. Peterborough United 43 24 8 11 80   3 47.5% 25.6% 26.9% 85.0 
 5. Barnsley 44 21 12 11 75   2 44.5% 26.1% 29.4% 78.0 
 6. Oxford United 44 21 10 13 73   2 42.9% 26.1% 30.9% 76.1 
 7. Lincoln City 45 19 14 12 71   2 47.5% 25.6% 26.9% 74.1 
 8. Blackpool 44 20 10 14 70   2 45.5% 25.8% 28.7% 72.9 
 9. Stevenage 44 18 13 13 67   2 35.8% 26.5% 37.7% 69.9 
 10. Leyton Orient 45 18 11 16 65   2 37.4% 26.5% 36.1% 68.4 
 11. Wycombe Wanderers 43 15 13 15 58   3 41.0% 26.2% 32.8% 63.2 
 12. Northampton Town 44 17 8 19 59   2 33.0% 26.2% 40.8% 61.3 
 13. Exeter City 44 16 10 18 58   2 35.9% 26.5% 37.7% 60.6 
 14. Bristol Rovers 44 16 9 19 57   2 29.7% 26.1% 44.2% 58.9 
 15. Wigan Athletic 44 18 10 16 56   2 39.3% 26.4% 34.2% 58.6 
 16. Reading 44 15 11 18 52   2 40.3% 26.2% 33.5% 55.1 
 17. Charlton Athletic 44 11 19 14 52   2 36.1% 26.5% 37.5% 54.9 
 18. Cambridge United 43 12 10 21 46   3 27.9% 25.8% 46.3% 49.3 
 19. Shrewsbury Town 44 13 8 23 47   2 26.4% 25.4% 48.1% 49.1 
 20. Burton Albion 44 11 10 23 43   2 24.9% 25.1% 50.0% 45.1 
 21. Cheltenham Town 43 11 8 24 41   3 25.7% 25.2% 49.1% 43.6 
 22. Port Vale 44 10 10 24 40   2 22.5% 24.4% 53.1% 41.8 
 23. Fleetwood Town 44 8 13 23 37   2 27.1% 25.5% 47.4% 39.5 
 24. Carlisle United 44 7 9 28 30   2 20.8% 23.8% 55.5% 31.4 

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