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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE ONE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Sheffield United 45 29 10 6 97   1 57.3% 24.0% 18.7% 99.3 
 2. Bolton Wanderers 45 24 11 10 83   1 49.6% 26.0% 24.4% 84.9 
 3. Fleetwood Town 45 23 12 10 81   1 46.9% 26.6% 26.6% 83.1 
 4. Scunthorpe United 45 23 10 12 79   1 45.3% 26.6% 28.2% 81.1 
 5. Bradford City 45 20 18 7 78   1 48.0% 26.3% 25.7% 79.5 
 6. Millwall 45 19 13 13 70   1 45.5% 26.6% 27.9% 71.5 
 7. Southend United 45 19 12 14 69   1 41.7% 27.0% 31.3% 70.8 
 8. Rochdale 45 19 11 15 68   1 39.8% 27.2% 33.0% 69.2 
 9. Oxford United 45 19 9 17 66   1 42.1% 27.0% 30.9% 67.9 
 10. Bristol Rovers 45 18 12 15 66   1 36.2% 27.2% 36.6% 67.2 
 11. Peterborough United 45 17 11 17 62   1 35.2% 27.2% 37.6% 62.9 
 12. Walsall 44 14 16 14 58   2 36.9% 27.2% 35.9% 61.3 
 13. Milton Keynes Dons 45 15 13 17 58   1 37.8% 27.4% 34.8% 59.3 
 14. Charlton Athletic 45 13 18 14 57   1 37.1% 27.2% 35.7% 58.8 
 15. AFC Wimbledon 45 13 17 15 56   1 31.5% 27.0% 41.6% 57.4 
 16. Northampton Town 45 14 10 21 52   1 30.0% 27.0% 43.1% 53.6 
 17. Oldham Athletic 45 12 16 17 52   1 33.4% 27.1% 39.5% 53.3 
 18. Shrewsbury Town 45 13 12 20 51   1 30.6% 27.0% 42.4% 51.9 
 19. Bury 45 13 11 21 50   1 30.8% 27.0% 42.2% 50.9 
 20. Gillingham 45 12 13 20 49   1 27.9% 26.7% 45.5% 50.1 
 21. Port Vale 44 11 12 21 45   2 24.3% 25.8% 49.9% 46.5 
 22. Swindon Town 45 11 11 23 44   1 27.3% 26.6% 46.2% 44.9 
 23. Coventry City 45 9 12 24 39   1 24.5% 25.8% 49.7% 39.7 
 24. Chesterfield 45 9 10 26 37   1 21.3% 25.2% 53.6% 37.6 

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