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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE ONE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Wigan Athletic 43 28 9 6 93   3 59.5% 23.1% 17.4% 99.1 
 2. Blackburn Rovers 43 26 12 5 90   3 59.2% 23.2% 17.6% 95.9 
 3. Shrewsbury Town 43 24 11 8 83   3 43.1% 27.0% 29.9% 88.0 
 4. Rotherham United 44 23 7 14 76   2 44.2% 26.8% 29.0% 79.0 
 5. Scunthorpe United 43 17 16 10 67   3 41.4% 27.1% 31.5% 72.0 
 6. Charlton Athletic 44 19 11 14 68   2 40.5% 27.1% 32.4% 70.3 
 7. Plymouth Argyle 42 18 10 14 64   4 40.8% 27.0% 32.1% 69.5 
 8. Portsmouth 44 19 6 19 63   2 35.9% 27.2% 36.9% 66.2 
 9. Peterborough United 42 16 12 14 60   4 38.2% 27.2% 34.7% 65.4 
 10. Bradford City 42 17 7 18 58   4 33.0% 27.1% 39.9% 63.7 
 11. Blackpool 44 15 14 15 59   2 38.1% 27.2% 34.7% 61.4 
 12. Southend United 43 15 11 17 56   3 35.9% 27.2% 36.9% 60.3 
 13. Bristol Rovers 43 16 8 19 56   3 34.4% 27.3% 38.4% 59.6 
 14. Doncaster Rovers 42 13 15 14 54   4 36.2% 27.3% 36.6% 58.7 
 15. Fleetwood Town 44 15 9 20 54   2 34.4% 27.3% 38.2% 56.8 
 16. Oxford United 44 14 11 19 53   2 32.9% 27.1% 40.0% 55.0 
 17. Gillingham 44 12 16 16 52   2 30.6% 26.9% 42.5% 54.3 
 18. AFC Wimbledon 42 13 10 19 49   4 32.3% 27.2% 40.5% 53.8 
 19. Oldham Athletic 43 11 15 17 48   3 30.8% 26.8% 42.3% 52.0 
 20. Walsall 43 12 12 19 48   3 28.4% 26.6% 44.9% 51.7 
 21. Rochdale 43 10 17 16 47   3 36.8% 27.2% 36.0% 51.1 
 22. Northampton Town 44 12 10 22 46   2 26.4% 26.5% 47.2% 48.5 
 23. Milton Keynes Dons 43 10 12 21 42   3 27.0% 26.5% 46.5% 44.9 
 24. Bury 44 7 11 26 32   2 20.6% 25.0% 54.4% 33.9 

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