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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE ONE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Peterborough United 30 19 4 7 61   16 51.6% 25.1% 23.3% 89.0 
 2. Lincoln City 30 17 6 7 57   16 43.4% 26.5% 30.2% 81.8 
 3. Portsmouth 30 15 7 8 52   16 48.6% 25.7% 25.6% 79.8 
 4. Hull City 32 17 5 10 56   14 47.1% 25.9% 27.0% 79.6 
 5. Sunderland 30 13 12 5 51   16 49.5% 25.5% 24.9% 78.3 
 6. Doncaster Rovers 28 15 4 9 49   18 44.5% 26.2% 29.2% 77.2 
 7. Blackpool 27 13 4 10 43   19 42.3% 26.5% 31.2% 73.2 
 8. Ipswich Town 29 14 5 10 47   17 39.5% 26.6% 33.9% 72.8 
 9. Oxford United 29 13 6 10 45   17 44.4% 26.2% 29.3% 72.2 
 10. Accrington Stanley 29 13 8 8 47   17 37.7% 26.7% 35.6% 70.2 
 11. Plymouth Argyle 31 12 9 10 45   15 36.9% 26.7% 36.3% 65.4 
 12. Charlton Athletic 31 12 8 11 44   15 37.2% 26.7% 36.0% 64.4 
 13. Crewe Alexandra 31 12 8 11 44   15 34.9% 26.7% 38.3% 63.6 
 14. Milton Keynes Dons 31 11 9 11 42   15 36.4% 26.7% 36.9% 63.0 
 15. Shrewsbury Town 28 9 10 9 37   18 37.0% 26.7% 36.4% 61.9 
 16. Gillingham 31 12 5 14 41   15 34.6% 26.7% 38.7% 60.0 
 17. Fleetwood Town 31 9 10 12 37   15 37.7% 26.7% 35.5% 57.7 
 18. Burton Albion 29 7 7 15 28   17 29.5% 26.5% 44.0% 47.5 
 19. Bristol Rovers 30 8 6 16 30   16 26.0% 25.7% 48.3% 46.6 
 20. AFC Wimbledon 29 7 7 15 28   17 23.9% 25.1% 51.0% 45.8 
 21. Swindon Town 31 9 4 18 31   15 24.6% 25.5% 50.0% 45.5 
 22. Wigan Athletic 31 7 6 18 27   15 31.9% 26.6% 41.5% 45.2 
 23. Rochdale 31 6 10 15 28   15 24.1% 25.3% 50.6% 41.7 
 24. Northampton Town 31 6 8 17 26   15 22.7% 24.8% 52.5% 39.3 

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