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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

BETVICTOR NORTHERN PREMIER LEAGUE PREMIER DIVISION

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. South Shields 31 19 6 6 63   11 55.5% 23.9% 20.6% 83.0 
 2. FC United of Manchester 31 16 9 6 57   11 52.5% 24.8% 22.7% 76.4 
 3. Warrington Town 32 14 13 5 55   10 52.7% 24.7% 22.6% 73.4 
 4. Morpeth Town 26 13 6 7 45   16 46.7% 25.8% 27.5% 72.7 
 5. Nantwich Town 30 15 7 8 52   12 47.1% 25.8% 27.1% 72.7 
 6. Basford United 31 16 7 8 55   11 42.8% 26.4% 30.9% 70.4 
 7. Whitby Town 29 14 6 9 48   13 40.3% 26.4% 33.3% 67.1 
 8. Lancaster City 33 15 7 11 52   9 38.6% 26.5% 34.9% 65.7 
 9. Gainsborough Trinity 31 11 8 12 41   11 41.6% 26.4% 32.0% 57.8 
 10. Scarborough Athletic 34 13 8 13 47   8 35.3% 26.7% 38.1% 57.2 
 11. Hyde United 32 12 7 13 43   10 33.8% 26.6% 39.6% 55.3 
 12. Witton Albion 30 10 8 12 38   12 34.6% 26.6% 38.8% 54.5 
 13. Ashton United 28 9 7 12 34   14 39.9% 26.5% 33.6% 54.3 
 14. Mickleover Sports 28 11 5 12 38   14 30.2% 26.2% 43.6% 53.6 
 15. Stalybridge Celtic 33 12 6 15 42   9 26.8% 25.6% 47.6% 50.9 
 16. Bamber Bridge 33 12 4 17 40   9 31.6% 26.4% 42.0% 50.8 
 17. Atherton Collieries 26 8 4 14 28   16 33.8% 26.6% 39.6% 49.6 
 18. Buxton 33 8 11 14 35   9 38.9% 26.5% 34.6% 48.1 
 19. Radcliffe 31 11 4 16 37   11 22.3% 24.6% 53.1% 47.9 
 20. Matlock Town 28 9 5 14 32   14 26.0% 25.6% 48.5% 45.5 
 21. Grantham Town 32 7 8 17 29   10 20.7% 24.0% 55.3% 36.9 
 22. Stafford Rangers 32 4 10 18 22   10 24.5% 25.2% 50.3% 31.9 

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