Change:

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

PITCHING IN NORTHERN PREMIER LEAGUE PREMIER DIVISION

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Radcliffe 40 29 3 8 90   2 52.6% 23.9% 23.4% 93.7 
 2. Macclesfield Town 39 25 5 9 80   3 70.2% 18.1% 11.7% 87.0 
 3. Marine 40 23 7 10 76   2 49.9% 24.6% 25.5% 79.6 
 4. Ashton United 40 20 10 10 70   2 46.2% 25.2% 28.7% 73.1 
 5. Hyde United 41 20 10 11 70   1 45.8% 25.2% 29.0% 71.9 
 6. Ilkeston Town 41 20 6 15 66   1 44.6% 25.4% 30.0% 67.1 
 7. Lancaster City 39 18 8 13 62   3 39.4% 25.9% 34.7% 67.1 
 8. Guiseley 39 18 7 14 61   3 40.2% 25.8% 34.0% 66.0 
 9. Gainsborough Trinity 40 18 6 16 60   2 43.3% 25.6% 31.0% 63.2 
 10. Whitby Town 40 17 8 15 59   2 35.6% 25.9% 38.5% 61.1 
 11. Morpeth Town 41 15 8 18 53   1 32.8% 25.8% 41.4% 54.8 
 12. FC United of Manchester 41 15 5 21 50   2 31.4% 25.8% 42.8% 52.9 
 13. Matlock Town 40 14 5 21 47   2 29.7% 25.6% 44.7% 49.5 
 14. Bamber Bridge 39 11 11 17 44   3 28.9% 25.5% 45.5% 47.4 
 15. Workington 40 10 11 19 41   2 23.8% 24.5% 51.7% 43.4 
 16. Basford United 40 8 10 22 34   2 26.1% 25.1% 48.8% 36.9 
 17. Bradford Park Avenue 40 8 9 23 33   2 28.9% 25.5% 45.5% 35.6 
 18. Stafford Rangers 39 9 3 27 30   3 25.1% 24.9% 50.0% 33.7 
 19. Atherton Collieries 40 7 4 29 25   2 18.5% 22.6% 58.9% 26.8 

Change division:
Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two | National League | National League North | National League South | Isthmian Premier | Northern Premier | Southern Premier (Central) | Southern Premier (South) |