Change:

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

PITCHING IN ISTHMIAN LEAGUE PREMIER DIVISION

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. AFC Hornchurch 41 30 7 4 97   1 61.0% 21.3% 17.7% 99.4 
 2. Enfield Town 40 22 10 8 76   2 53.9% 23.7% 22.4% 79.3 
 3. Chatham Town 41 24 6 11 78   1 48.4% 25.0% 26.6% 79.1 
 4. Horsham 40 22 7 11 73   2 47.9% 25.3% 26.8% 76.9 
 5. Wingate and Finchley 41 22 7 12 73   1 45.3% 24.9% 29.7% 74.6 
 6. Billericay Town 41 22 4 15 70   1 45.2% 25.0% 29.9% 72.1 
 7. Lewes 41 19 7 15 64   1 39.8% 26.1% 34.1% 66.0 
 8. Dulwich Hamlet 41 17 11 13 62   1 46.0% 25.1% 28.9% 63.9 
 9. Carshalton Athletic 41 17 11 13 62   1 41.7% 26.1% 32.2% 63.2 
 10. Whitehawk 40 15 14 11 59   2 39.4% 26.0% 34.7% 61.8 
 11. Bognor Regis Town 40 14 14 12 56   2 38.3% 25.3% 36.3% 59.3 
 12. Canvey Island 41 16 5 20 53   1 37.9% 25.7% 36.4% 54.4 
 13. Potters Bar Town 40 14 9 17 51   2 31.5% 25.6% 42.9% 53.1 
 14. Folkestone Invicta 41 13 11 17 50   1 35.3% 26.0% 38.7% 51.1 
 15. Cray Wanderers 41 12 11 18 47   1 32.0% 26.0% 42.0% 47.8 
 16. Cheshunt 40 11 6 23 39   2 33.2% 25.5% 41.4% 41.2 
 17. Margate 41 10 9 22 39   1 25.6% 24.8% 49.6% 39.7 
 18. Haringey Borough 41 6 9 26 27   1 18.5% 23.6% 57.8% 27.8 
 19. Concord Rangers 40 6 8 26 26   2 25.1% 24.5% 50.4% 27.6 
 20. Kingstonian 41 5 6 30 21   1 15.4% 20.8% 63.8% 21.4 

Change division:
Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two | National League | National League North | National League South | Isthmian Premier | Northern Premier | Southern Premier (Central) | Southern Premier (South) |