Change:

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE SOUTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Maidenhead United 36 25 8 3 83   6 55.7% 24.1% 20.2% 94.5 
 2. Ebbsfleet United 36 24 8 4 80   6 61.6% 21.9% 16.5% 92.7 
 3. Dartford 36 21 8 7 71   6 50.0% 25.4% 24.6% 81.1 
 4. Chelmsford City 36 19 12 5 69   6 49.4% 25.4% 25.2% 78.8 
 5. Poole Town 35 19 9 7 66   7 48.1% 25.7% 26.3% 77.4 
 6. Hungerford Town 35 17 10 8 61   7 45.2% 26.2% 28.6% 71.4 
 7. Hampton and Richmond Borough 36 16 11 9 59   6 44.9% 26.3% 28.9% 68.1 
 8. Wealdstone 36 16 9 11 57   6 41.2% 26.5% 32.3% 65.9 
 9. St. Albans City 36 15 7 14 52   6 33.1% 26.5% 40.3% 60.6 
 10. Bath City 36 15 8 13 53   6 40.1% 26.6% 33.4% 60.6 
 11. East Thurrock United 36 13 12 11 51   6 39.8% 26.5% 33.7% 59.4 
 12. Hemel Hempstead Town 35 13 9 13 48   7 36.8% 26.7% 36.5% 57.2 
 13. Eastbourne Borough 36 13 10 13 49   6 36.2% 26.7% 37.1% 56.3 
 14. Oxford City 36 11 7 18 40   6 30.2% 26.4% 43.4% 47.7 
 15. Concord Rangers 36 9 11 16 38   6 33.9% 26.5% 39.6% 45.4 
 16. Welling United 36 10 7 19 37   6 33.9% 26.5% 39.6% 44.2 
 17. Weston-Super-Mare 36 10 5 21 35   6 28.6% 26.1% 45.3% 43.6 
 18. Truro City 36 10 6 20 36   6 26.6% 25.8% 47.6% 42.6 
 19. Whitehawk 35 9 6 20 33   7 25.8% 25.7% 48.6% 40.2 
 20. Gosport Borough 36 8 7 21 31   6 21.2% 24.1% 54.6% 37.6 
 21. Bishop's Stortford 36 7 3 26 24   6 19.5% 24.0% 56.5% 29.7 
 22. Margate 36 6 3 27 21   6 17.3% 22.3% 60.4% 25.3 

Change division:
Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two | National League | National League North | National League South