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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE SOUTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Dartford 42 26 8 8 86   0 55.4% 24.3% 20.3% 86.0 
 2. Havant and Waterlooville 42 25 11 6 86   0 55.3% 24.3% 20.4% 86.0 
 3. Chelmsford City 42 21 11 10 74   0 49.2% 25.7% 25.0% 74.0 
 4. Hampton and Richmond Borough 42 18 18 6 72   0 49.7% 25.6% 24.7% 72.0 
 5. Hemel Hempstead Town 42 19 13 10 70   0 44.3% 26.8% 28.9% 70.0 
 6. Braintree Town 42 19 13 10 70   0 46.9% 26.2% 26.9% 70.0 
 7. Truro City 42 20 9 13 69   0 37.0% 27.2% 35.8% 69.0 
 8. St. Albans City 42 19 8 15 65   0 37.4% 27.1% 35.5% 65.0 
 9. Bath City 42 17 12 13 63   0 44.1% 26.8% 29.1% 63.0 
 10. Welling United 42 17 10 15 61   0 37.3% 27.1% 35.5% 61.0 
 11. Wealdstone 42 16 11 15 59   0 39.0% 27.1% 33.9% 59.0 
 12. Weston-super-Mare 42 16 7 19 55   0 31.3% 26.7% 41.9% 55.0 
 13. Chippenham Town 42 15 9 18 54   0 36.8% 27.2% 35.9% 54.0 
 14. Gloucester City 42 15 8 19 53   0 33.2% 27.0% 39.8% 53.0 
 15. East Thurrock United 42 13 11 18 50   0 28.3% 26.5% 45.2% 50.0 
 16. Oxford City 42 13 10 19 49   0 32.1% 26.8% 41.1% 49.0 
 17. Eastbourne Borough 42 13 7 22 46   0 26.2% 26.1% 47.7% 46.0 
 18. Concord Rangers 42 12 10 20 46   0 26.5% 26.2% 47.3% 46.0 
 19. Hungerford Town 42 12 7 23 43   0 26.8% 26.4% 46.8% 43.0 
 20. Poole Town 42 11 9 22 42   0 28.1% 26.5% 45.4% 42.0 
 21. Whitehawk 42 8 10 24 34   0 26.4% 26.1% 47.5% 34.0 
 22. Bognor Regis Town 42 5 12 25 27   0 19.5% 24.3% 56.2% 27.0 

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