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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE SOUTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Dartford 25 13 7 5 46   17 51.8% 25.4% 22.7% 77.7 
 2. Braintree Town 25 12 9 4 45   17 49.4% 26.1% 24.5% 74.9 
 3. Hampton and Richmond Borough 25 11 11 3 44   17 49.4% 26.1% 24.4% 73.5 
 4. Havant and Waterlooville 24 12 7 5 43   18 46.9% 26.5% 26.6% 73.0 
 5. Chelmsford City 24 10 9 5 39   18 49.1% 26.1% 24.8% 70.6 
 6. Hemel Hempstead Town 24 11 7 6 40   18 41.1% 27.1% 31.7% 66.9 
 7. St. Albans City 24 11 7 6 40   18 38.5% 27.2% 34.3% 66.1 
 8. Truro City 24 11 7 6 40   18 35.5% 27.2% 37.3% 63.7 
 9. Weston-super-Mare 23 9 6 8 33   19 39.1% 27.2% 33.7% 59.9 
 10. East Thurrock United 23 9 7 7 34   19 35.9% 27.1% 37.0% 59.5 
 11. Wealdstone 23 8 8 7 32   19 36.6% 27.3% 36.1% 58.5 
 12. Bath City 24 8 8 8 32   18 38.4% 27.3% 34.3% 57.6 
 13. Welling United 24 9 7 8 34   18 34.3% 27.2% 38.5% 57.5 
 14. Hungerford Town 25 9 5 11 32   17 36.5% 27.2% 36.3% 55.7 
 15. Concord Rangers 23 5 10 8 25   19 33.0% 27.2% 39.8% 50.0 
 16. Chippenham Town 24 7 6 11 27   18 30.4% 27.1% 42.5% 48.8 
 17. Gloucester City 24 7 5 12 26   18 31.1% 27.1% 41.8% 47.4 
 18. Eastbourne Borough 25 8 5 12 29   17 26.0% 26.4% 47.6% 46.9 
 19. Oxford City 25 6 7 12 25   17 29.8% 27.1% 43.1% 44.5 
 20. Poole Town 23 5 6 12 21   19 28.1% 26.7% 45.2% 41.5 
 21. Bognor Regis Town 24 2 11 11 17   18 27.4% 26.5% 46.1% 35.7 
 22. Whitehawk 25 2 5 18 11   17 18.1% 23.7% 58.1% 23.9 

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