Change:

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE SOUTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Maidenhead United 42 30 8 4 98   0 58.4% 23.0% 18.6% 98.0 
 2. Ebbsfleet United 42 29 9 4 96   0 64.6% 21.0% 14.4% 96.0 
 3. Dartford 42 25 9 8 84   0 50.4% 25.2% 24.4% 84.0 
 4. Chelmsford City 42 23 13 6 82   0 52.1% 25.0% 22.9% 82.0 
 5. Poole Town 42 20 11 11 71   0 41.0% 26.3% 32.7% 71.0 
 6. Hungerford Town 42 19 13 10 70   0 43.9% 26.1% 30.0% 70.0 
 7. Hampton and Richmond Borough 42 19 12 11 69   0 44.0% 26.1% 29.9% 69.0 
 8. Wealdstone 42 18 12 12 66   0 41.9% 26.5% 31.6% 66.0 
 9. Bath City 42 18 8 16 62   0 41.0% 26.3% 32.6% 62.0 
 10. St. Albans City 42 16 11 15 59   0 33.7% 26.6% 39.7% 59.0 
 11. Eastbourne Borough 42 16 10 16 58   0 38.1% 26.2% 35.6% 58.0 
 12. East Thurrock United 42 14 14 14 56   0 37.4% 26.4% 36.2% 56.0 
 13. Hemel Hempstead Town 41 14 12 15 54   1 35.5% 26.4% 38.1% 55.5 
 14. Oxford City 42 15 7 20 52   0 33.0% 26.5% 40.6% 52.0 
 15. Weston-Super-Mare 42 14 6 22 48   0 33.9% 26.6% 39.5% 48.0 
 16. Whitehawk 41 12 7 22 43   1 28.5% 25.9% 45.6% 44.3 
 17. Welling United 42 12 7 23 43   0 32.4% 26.6% 41.0% 43.0 
 18. Concord Rangers 42 10 12 20 42   0 31.1% 26.3% 42.7% 42.0 
 19. Truro City 42 11 7 24 40   0 24.0% 25.2% 50.8% 40.0 
 20. Gosport Borough 42 9 9 24 36   0 20.8% 24.1% 55.1% 36.0 
 21. Bishop's Stortford 42 8 3 31 27   0 18.1% 23.1% 58.8% 27.0 
 22. Margate 42 7 4 31 25   0 17.2% 22.4% 60.4% 25.0 

Change division:
Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two | National League | National League North | National League South