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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE SOUTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Maidenhead United 41 29 8 4 95   1 57.7% 23.4% 18.9% 97.3 
 2. Ebbsfleet United 41 28 9 4 93   1 62.9% 21.8% 15.3% 95.3 
 3. Dartford 41 24 9 8 81   1 50.5% 25.3% 24.2% 82.5 
 4. Chelmsford City 41 23 12 6 81   1 51.8% 24.9% 23.3% 82.5 
 5. Poole Town 41 20 11 10 71   1 42.1% 26.4% 31.5% 72.2 
 6. Hungerford Town 41 19 12 10 69   1 43.5% 26.2% 30.3% 70.2 
 7. Hampton and Richmond Borough 41 18 12 11 66   1 44.4% 26.1% 29.5% 67.9 
 8. Wealdstone 41 18 11 12 65   1 42.0% 26.4% 31.6% 66.4 
 9. Bath City 41 17 8 16 59   1 40.3% 26.3% 33.4% 60.7 
 10. St. Albans City 41 16 11 14 59   1 34.6% 26.3% 39.1% 60.1 
 11. Hemel Hempstead Town 40 14 12 14 54   2 38.3% 26.6% 35.2% 57.3 
 12. Eastbourne Borough 41 15 10 16 55   1 37.1% 26.4% 36.5% 56.6 
 13. East Thurrock United 41 14 13 14 55   1 37.2% 26.5% 36.3% 56.3 
 14. Oxford City 41 15 7 19 52   1 33.3% 26.5% 40.2% 52.5 
 15. Weston-Super-Mare 41 13 6 22 45   1 31.0% 26.2% 42.7% 46.0 
 16. Welling United 41 12 7 22 43   1 33.2% 26.5% 40.2% 44.0 
 17. Concord Rangers 41 10 12 19 42   1 31.7% 26.4% 41.9% 42.8 
 18. Whitehawk 40 11 7 22 40   2 27.4% 25.8% 46.9% 42.6 
 19. Truro City 41 11 7 23 40   1 26.0% 25.7% 48.3% 41.7 
 20. Gosport Borough 41 9 9 23 36   1 21.5% 24.4% 54.0% 37.2 
 21. Margate 41 7 4 30 25   1 17.6% 22.7% 59.7% 25.6 
 22. Bishop's Stortford 41 7 3 31 24   1 16.5% 22.2% 61.3% 25.1 

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